Experience Chart vs Previous years’ Experience Chart

In my July 5th blog I detailed how happy I was with the results of the Experience Chart when used as a predictor for the upcoming season. Basically 73% of the Top 15 on the Experience Chart had an improved or the same record and 68% of the top 37. The results at the bottom of the chart were even stronger with 83% of the bottom 15 teams on the Experience Chart having a weaker or the same record the next year. Teams rated #90 or lower on the Experience Chart had a weaker or the same record 73% of the time!!!

            I mentioned that I thought if you compared the chart to the previous year and looked for teams that made the biggest leaps or had the biggest declines in Experience that the numbers would be even stronger. I am pleased to report that yes, indeed the numbers were even better than I expected!!

            Here is how I determined the numbers. I took where a team ranked the previous year in the Experience Chart. Let me give you an Example. In 2017 Georgia Southern was #127 on my Experience Chart and finished a poor 2-10. In 2018 It was a much more veteran Eagles squad that was #2 on my Experience Chart which was an improvement of 125 spots! Georgia Southern improved all the way to 10-3 in 2018! At the opposite end of the spectrum we can take a look at the 2022 Nevada squad. In 2021 I was high on the Wolfpack and they were #4 on my Exp Chart and went 8-5. Last year they were wiped out with defections and fell 125 spots to #129 on my Experience Chart and I had them picked much lower than most. Nevada went just 2-10.

            Just like I did for the Experience Chart I ignored the 2020 and 2021 seasons as 2020 was an abnormal season with delays, reschedules and mismatched games due to Covid testing which had some teams down one third their players. In 2021 almost every team had everyone back and how do you compare records with 2020 when some teams played 4, 6 or even 0 games.

            The first chart I will look at is now teams from 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022 fared when they were much more experienced than the previous year. The example I mentioned above with Georgia Southern was the team that had the biggest difference. Example if a team was #100 in the Experience Chart the previous year and #50 this year they are 50 spots more experienced. Let me give you a few more Examples of teams that were much more experienced from one year to the next and how they fared. In 2016 Fresno was #110 on my Exp Chart but in 2017 Fresno improved to #25. That was a jump of 85 spots and their record went from 1-11 to 10-4! In 2013 Air Force was #93 on my Exp Chart and went 2-10 but in 2014 they jumped 70 spots to #23 on the Exp Chart and the record improved to 10-3! Florida Atlantic was #1 on my Exp Chart in 2017 (+67 spots) and their record improved from 3-9 in 2016 to 11-3!

Here is the chart for teams that were more experienced.

Teams that improved from .5 to 54 spots higher in the Experience Chart did not show a lot of improvement. There were 377 teams in that area and 172 improved their record while 144 had a weaker record which is 55% and 61 teams had the same record. As the chart shows above teams that are 55 spots more Experienced, or more than the previous year happened 205 times. Teams Improved their record 133 times with a weaker record only 49 times and the same record 23 times which is a success rate of 76.1% of teams having either a stronger or the same record! I will list the top of this year’s list below.

            This second chart is how teams fared that were less experienced than the previous year. I listed the top example above, but this breaks down how each team fared in the different categories. This is the opposite of the above chart. If a team was #50 on my Experienced Chart the previous year and is now #100 they are 50 sports less experienced. In 2015 Michigan St was #34 on my Exp Chart and went 12-2 the next year they dropped to #117 on my Exp Chart a drop of 83 spots and fell to 3-9. Fresno St was 12-2 in 2018 when they were #24 on my Exp Chart but in 2019 fell all the way to #129, a drop of 105 spots and their record fell to 4-8. In 2021 Louisiana was #5 on my Exp Chart and had a remarkable year at 13-1 and were #16 AP. Last year they dropped to #97 a drop of 92 spots and were just 6-7.

Here is this year’s chart.

The results were similar in the opposite direction. As you would expect teams that were from 1 to 55 spots less experienced did indeed have a weaker record a majority of the time with 173 teams getting weaker and 131 teams having a stronger record. Good but that is only 57% with 40 teams having the same record. Once teams get beyond that 55 number the teams that have a weaker record really intensifies. Teams with over 55 points less experienced have a weaker record 141 times, a stronger record 52 times and the same record 22 times which is a 75.8% success rates of having a weaker or the same record!

            Now lets take a look at some of this years top teams for these charts. There are two teams that fit the 100+ and up category and they are Texas A&M which is 100 spots higher on the Experience Chart than last year and also my #1 Most Improved team. The other is Wyoming which goes from #129 to #21 which is 108 spots higher. Those two are clearly headed for better seasons.

            At the other end of the chart there are five teams that top a move of 100 spots weaker on the Experience Chart and are likely headed for a weaker year. Those five teams are Old Dominion (-110 spots), UAB (-104), East Carolina (-103), TCU (-101) and Stanford (-101).

Phil Steele Plus is loaded with great info and right now you can get the entire chart of teams and the amount of spots they are either weaker or stronger on the Experience Chart this year. If you are a Phil Steele Plus member just Click Here.

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