When I worked for ESPN full time, I put out a weekly article entitled the Vegas Power Ratings. I still have all the sources that I used to produce that article as it featured my plus/minus ratings which closely resemble Vegas’s numbers as well as three different casinos including the fine folks over at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook @SuperBookSports.
This is not the AP poll but gives you an idea of how much teams would be favored over another team if they met on a neutral field. I use these to get an idea of lines on upcoming games. Keep in mind just because a team beat someone last week does not mean they would be favored over them in the Vegas ratings. Let me give you a couple of examples from this week. I will update these each week during the year. Stanford went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame outright four weeks ago but if they met on a neutral field this week ND would be a 19-point favorite. Illinois just lost at home to Michigan St last week but if they met again this week at a neutral field Illinois would be a 6 point favorite.
The playoff rankings are out, and they mean absolutely nothing right now. I don’t even pay attention to them until the final week as much will change between now and then. I do notice that the CFP has TCU #4 and Texas #18 but as you see the Vegas Power Ratings have Texas by 5 and factor in the home field and you see they are a TD favorite. Last week I noted Texas was just 4-3 and Kansas St is 6-2 and off a 48-0 blowout win over Oklahoma St and at home yet Texas was favored. You knew that coming in as Vegas had Texas #7 in the country (they were unranked AP) and Kansas St was #18.
Here is the eleventh edition of the 2022 Vegas Power Ratings!