I have heard this argument in many circles that are trusted. The hypothesis goes like this. Vegas knows that the average gambler plays mostly favorites, so the lines are slanted to get the Smart Money to play the Underdog to even it out. The argument makes sense that Smart bettors only play dogs. Is playing just Underdogs the way to go?

Let’s take a close look. When I was doing the article on How many Underdogs win outright, I decided to look at how the Underdogs do vs the spread.

Here is the chart of every underdog since 1997, a 29-year span.

I plugged in every game since 1997 which is 22343 games. If you blindly played the Underdog on each game, you would have a record of 11,087-10,910-342 for a winning percentage of just 50.4%. To make money wagering on sports you need to win 52.5% of the time just to break even after you deduct the juice. Over the last 29 years the statement that you should only bet Underdogs is FALSE.

No let’s take a look at last 13 years results.

I plugged in every game the last 15 years which is 12,702 games. If you blindly played the Underdog on each game, you would have a record of 6,300-6,196-203  for a winning percentage of just 50.4%. To make money wagering on sports you need to win 52.5% of the time just to break even after you deduct the juice. Over the last 13 years the statement that you should only bet Underdogs is FALSE.

Now let us just look at 2024’s games

I plugged in every game for last year which is 912 games. If you blindly played the Underdog on each game you would have a record of 449-442-18  for a winning percentage of just 50.4%. To make money wagering on sports you need to win 52.5% of the time just to break even after you deduct the juice. Using just 2024  the statement that you should only bet Underdogs is FALSE.

Now lets take a look at just 2025.

Last year the underdogs had a losing record with 915 games the underdog was 435-467-13 for a 48.2% win percentage. You cannot make money with a losing percentage so forget about trying to hit 52.5% last year!! Using just 2025 the statement that you should only bet Underdogs is FALSE.

Can we find any spots where playing the Underdog does work out? Only TWO of the 14 categories produced a record above 52.6% but they do not come along very often. Over the last 29 years teams that were a +49.5 underdog or higher do have a record of 65-38-1 for a 63.1% winning record. So, if a team is getting over 7 TD’s, then go ahead, blindly play the underdog but other than that it is basically a 50/50 proposition.

Final Answer: The statement you should only bet underdogs is FALSE

There are 127 FBS vs FCS games this year and Vegas has also been posting numbers on FCS vs FCS matchups for the last 5 years. We have complete spread records for five year and TWO FULL PAGES on EVERY FCS team in my Digital FCS magazine which is available right now. There are no edges in betting dogs or betting the big TV games each week but you have some solid edges in FCS and the average bettor knows very little on the FCS and you would be an expert. CLICK HERE to get the digital magazine right now