One thing I really enjoy doing in the first write thru process is when I am writing the Offense and Defense and going over what happened last year with the two units, I like to check back on what my computer forecast and what happened stat wise. I do not look at these numbers during the year and it my first chance to see how the computer did in forecasting the teams’ stats for the upcoming year.
I have a file set up that takes the teams power ratings for the Rush Offense, Pass Offense, Scoring Offense, Rush Defense, Pass Defense and Scoring Defense. It takes those ratings and then factors in each opponent’s power ratings. My computer gives me a forecasted yards rushing, passing and points for offense and defense for each game. Naturally we add up all 12 and divide by 12 for my computer’s projection for each category for the season.
I have my Phil Steele Plus Team page open, and I am looking at all the stats and then at one point I open last year’s magazine to page 41 to see what my computer’s forecast was for each of the six categories. I have to admit when I am flipping to page 41, I have my fingers crossed hoping the computer was on the money and over 75% of the team when I see the forecast and compare it to the final results, I let out a YESSSSSS! The numbers are almost always right in the area of what happened for the year.
I have ratings for each position: Quarterbacks, Running Back, Receivers, Offensive Lines, Defensive Lines, Linebackers, Defensive Backs and Special teams. I have an adjustment for the computer rush numbers and pass numbers. I look back at the last couple of years and see what % of the offense has been run and pass which gives me an idea of what to project.
I grade each offense and put them in one of 11 categories. My chart looks like this and it has my computer adjustment number with it.
I then go back and color each of the past years with what type of Offense they were. A team that had 70% rush yards gets the ORANGE Color. If a team was in the 60-69.9% range of rush yards they received a PURPLE color. The GRAY is for teams in the 55-59.9% range. The GOLD is for teams in the 50-54.9% range. The TAN is for teams with 50.1-53% PASS yards. The PINK is for teams in the 53-55.9% PASS range. The YELLOW or standard is for teams that are in the average with 56.1-62.5% pass yards. This is the most common and yes, most teams pass for more yards than they run for. The next level is light green which is for 62.6% and 65.9% pass yards. The darker Green is for teams in the 66-69.9% pass range. The BLUE is for teams in the 70-79.9% range. The Darkest GREEN is for teams in the 70% range.
Here is the chart that I look at.
As you see the chart is sorted by last years rankings. At the bottom I have the average for each year and 2018 had the lowest pass percentage of 56.5% for the average pass yards and the highest was 2013 with 59.3% of the pass yards. The average last year was 58.4% and the median was 59.2%. You will notice that Old Dominion and UConn did not play football in 2020 and that is why they are blank. I also did not go back on the FCS teams that have moved up recently as I wanted the average to be an FBS average.
I also must factor what is going on with the team. Last year Rice brought in the option offense As you can see in the chart this was a team that threw the ball 69.6% and 67.7% the previous two years but I factored the switch in and changed them in the computer to a purple team to help with the projections. If you are a college football nerd like me you can look at the chart and see when Nick Saban decided to open up the Alabama offense in 2018. They went from 2708 pass yards in 2017 to 4854 in 2018. Look at Wash State’s numbers under Mike Leach and the changeover to where they are now. Look at Georgia Southern’s line and you can see the drastic shift from the option to a pass offense under HC Helton. Army got away from the pure option in 2023 and opened just 2-6 then went back to the run based attack the last 4 weeks and won the last 4. They were actually a Gold or Gray team the first 8 games then went back to being an Orange team the last 4.
Today’s blog is more of just a pure information blog. Check out your favorite team and see their pass/run %’s over the past 10 years.
This years magazine is 376 pages and the biggest and best ever. Here are the different ways you can order the magazine.
Option #1 – Pick one up at your local Barnes and Noble or Books-a-Million store. When you go into a Barnes and Noble you get two different cover choices in each store! The official on sale date is July 4th but it is hitting some stores sooner. It is also available at Books-a-Million which all have the national cover. These two distributors are our exclusive vendors of the magazine, and they are not available at Walmart’s, Walgreens, Grocery Stores, other bookstores or drug stores so save your gas. The only two brick and mortar store they are available are Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million.
Option #2 – Buy the Hard copy of the magazine at philsteele.com or call 1-866-918-7711. The total cost depends on where you live and which of the four types of shipping you choose. It will cost you in the ballpark of $10 for shipping and tax. The biggest advantage of buying online is that When you buy the Hard copy you GET the DIGITAL version of the magazine ($19.99) for FREE and it is updated thru September. Your digital access begins immediately when you purchase. You also get your choice of covers (National, SEC, Midwest, Southwest, West or East Coast) as these are generally mailed out the same or next business day as the order. Order Here!
Option #3 – Buy the digital magazine. The best thing about the digital magazine is that it is updated all the way thru the month of September. If a coach gets fired (that has happened the last couple of years) we update it. If a player is injured and out for the year we CIRCLE him in the magazine. If a player is added late (very rare) we put him in. Any changes to the team from the start of June thru the month of September is updated in the digital version. When you go to the philsteele.com store you will not see a picture there, you need to click on Digital Editions and order it there. It will be activated immediately giving you instant access. Order the Digital Here!
Option #4 – Order the VIP Bundle – The price of the VIP bundle is $44.95. With the VIP bundle you get the National Cover of the magazine. All VIP’s received EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital version of the magazine for one week, but that bonus is gone as the digital is now available for everyone. You receive two magazines PLUS the Digital Magazine. You also receive FOUR Free issues of my Inside the Pressbox Newsletter ($20 per issue – $80 value) which gives you my Forecast and my computers forecast on EVERY FBS game each week. You also receive access to Phil Steele Plus ($25 per month) for the months of June, July, August and September! The VIP Bundle also includes SHIPPING so it is basically just $10 more than ordering the magazine by itself! Order the Reg VIP Bundle Here!!
Option #5 – THE BEST BUY – Order the Super VIP Bundle – The price of the SUPER VIP bundle is $74.95. With the Super VIP Bundle you receive
TWO magazines INCLUDING SHIPPING ($69 value!), EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital version for one week (that happened already), order shipped next business day. Use the 2nd magazine when your first one gets dogeared or sell/give it to a friend.
Digital magazine ($19.95 value) FREE – The digital magazine is updated thru September (see option 3) and you get immediate access to the digital version upon purchase.
Four Issues of my Inside the Pressbox newsletter ($80 value) which gives you my forecast and my COMPUTERs forecast on EVERY FBS games each week (including FBS vs FCS) the same bonuses that the VIP’s get. You also receive…
FCS Digital Magazine ($25) FREE – Two full pages on Every FCS team laid out the same way the pages are for the FBS magazine. There are 128 FCS teams so over 250 pages!
NFL Digital Magazine ($15) FREE – Four full pages on Every NFL team and a Fantasy Football section!
Phil Steele Plus ($99 value) ENTIRE SEASON FREE – This is a tremendous addition. If you purchase the full year access to Phil Steele Plus it is $99 but you get it included in the Super VIP Bundle Purchase the Super VIP Bundle now and get the entire year of Phil Steele Plus FREE!! Here is a link to all the great info available on Phil Steele Plus including the schedule predictor! Order the Super VIP Bundle Here!!
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