Every year in the magazine I give you the Strength of Schedule for the upcoming season and give it to you using two methods. The NCAA uses opponents win loss percentage from last year. I list this in the magazine each year and then list my strength of opponent for the upcoming season. I point out that my strength of schedule accounts for how good their opponents are THIS year and not based on how the opponents were last. Year. This was on page 26 and 27 of the magazine last year.
I only looked at the actual regular season schedule and did not include any conference championship games or bowls or playoff games just the regular season schedule as the other games were not scheduled.
On page 27 I pointed out some major differences between where I ranked the strength of schedule and the NCAA method using last years records.
Let me give you a couple of examples. At the top of the list for most Underrated schedules was TCU which my ratings had rated facing a schedule 67 spots tougher than the NCAA method. Basing TCU’s schedule on last year’s opponent records they came in at #105 with their 2023 opponents having a record of 74-78 48.7%. With the season now compete we find that those opponents which had combined for under 50% in 2022 were actually 87-65 in 2023 which was #29 and they faced four teams that finished ranked.
I had Rutgers rated as 57 spots underrated. Rutgers 2023 opponents were just 75-74 in 2022 which ranked #88 but those opponents were 90-64 85.4% in 2023 which was actually the 14th toughest of any team.
I had Miami Florida’s schedule rated 55 spots tougher than the NCAA method. Miami’s 2023 opponents were just 73-76 in 2022 which ranked #103 but those same teams were 90-65 58% in 2023 which turned out to be the 20th highest percentage.
I could give you a lot more examples but let me give you some actual numbers right now. First lets take a look at that Win Lost Percentage rate for each teams 2023 opponents using 2022 records.
Now lets take a look at how those same teams actually fared in 2023. The chart listed below is the actual records of each team faced in 2023.
Let me make a few observations. The NCAA is not completely flawed. It had South Carolina #1 and Michigan St #2 for toughest schedules (I had them #2 & #3) and those two finished #1 and #5 based on opponents records.
My bottom four teams as far as strength of schedule or facing the easiest foes were Eastern Michigan, Ohio, New Mexico St and Liberty and all four made a bowl and if you look above you will see all four finished in the bottom 6 of opponents records.
Iowa State’s opponents in 2023 had three of the teams finish 2022 ranked but after 2023 exactly half of Iowa States opponents finished ranked or 6 of the 12. UCF’s 2023 opponents had just 1 team that finished ranked but 4 of those same teams finished ranked last year. On the flip side Arizona faced six teams that finished ranked in 2022 but only one of them finished ranked last year with Miss St, USC, UCLA, Oregon St and Utah all dropping out of the Top 25 in 2023.
Two teams had their opponent’s averages drop by over 10% from the previous year and both teams were a lot stronger. West Virginia’s 2023 foes were 98-59 62.4% but in 2023 those teams went just 73-77 48.7%. Texas St’s 2023 foes were 88-67 57% but in 2023 those teams were just 70-81 46.4%.
Coming into 2023 Miami Florida was facing just 5 teams that finished with a winning record in 2022 but 9 of those teams had a winning record last year. The same for Virginia whose 2023 schedule had 8 teams that finished with a winning record but ALL TWELVE of their foes in 2023 finished with a winning record! The next closest teams in that category of opponents that had a winning record were Miami, Arizona St and South Carolina but each were 3 behind with just 9.
I mentioned that Iowa State faced 6 teams that finished ranked with Michigan St, Duke, Florida and Kentucky each facing 5 teams in the regular season that finished ranked.
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