A couple of years ago, I was wondering if there was any value in predicting future success/failure for teams that pulled a bunch of upsets a year prior and on the flip side of that, teams that were upset numerous times in the previous year. My hypothesis going into my research was that teams that pulled many upsets the previous year would be overvalued and see their record get weaker the following year, as teams would take them more seriously and the experts in Las Vegas would adjust their lines. Similarly, teams that were upset numerous times as favorites the previous year would be undervalued and would see their record improve.
The results coincided with my original predictions as in the last 26 years, teams that pulled 3 or more NET upsets (upset wins minus upset losses) the previous year have seen their record get weaker or stay the same 186 out of 257 times for a 72.3% success rate. On the opposite end, teams that had a -3 or more net upsets the previous year have seen their record improve or stay the same on 181 out on 275 occasions for a 66% success rate.
Here is a look at the overall records for teams in each Category since 1990. Note the % column is geared towards my hypothesis. The percentage for teams that pulled more upsets is the weaker and same record divided by the total. For example, there have been 12 teams that have pulled 5 Net Upsets (5 more upset wins than upset losses) the previous year in the last 34 years and of those 12 teams, 10 had a weaker record the next year for an 83.3% success rate for this article.
Once we get to the negative numbers those are teams that had more upset losses than upset wins and this article is saying that those teams will improve their record. There have been 18 teams since 2000 that had -5 Upsets the previous year and 14 of those teams improved their record and only 3 had a weaker record with one the same record for an 83.3% success rate for this article.
Now let us look at the FCS and see what effect the Net Upsets have had. Unlike the FBS where I did 26 years of research. I have the data for the teams Net Upsets in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. Therefore I have 3 years’ worth of results and this year projections. The numbers at the extreme ends of the charts did work out. Teams that pulled 4 or more Net Upsets in those 3 years had a weaker record 8 out of 10 times for an 80% success rate! Teams in the +1 to +3 category however had a 56-64-18 mark so only 59.4% had either a weaker or the same record.
Teams at the other end of the spectrum were much the same. If a team suffered 3 or more Net Upset (-3 or more) one year they improved their record a super 14 times and had the same record 5 times with only 4 of the 23 teams able to improve their record for a super 83% success rate. Teams in the -1 and -2 category were just 55-46-13 for a 59.6% success rate.
Now here are the top teams for 2026. Here is the Going Up Category or teams that had 2 of more Net Upset Losses last year. These teams all have a 65% chance of improving their record with NC Central and St Thomas having a 85% chance or better.
GOING UP – Teams with 2+ Upset Losses last year
NC Central -3
St Thomas -3
Austin Peay -2
Florida A&M -2
Grambling -2
Hampton -2
Jackson St -2
Mercer -2
Monmouth -2
Morgan St -2
Norfolk St -2
North Dakota -2
Northern Arizona -2
Samford -2
SE Louisiana -2
SE Missouri St -2
South Dakota St -2
UC Davis -2
Western Carolina -2
GOING DOWN Teams that benefitted from 3+ upset last year
Illinois St +3
New Haven +3
Sacred Heart +3
Abilene Christian +2
Arkansas Pine Bluff +2
Dayton +2
Georgetown +2
North Carolina AT&T +2
South Dakota +2
Stetson +2
The Citadel +2
UTRGV +2
Villanova +2
Wagner +2
Weber St +2
Western Illinois +2
Yale +2
The FCS magazine has two full pages on every FCS team and the same right hand page with all the great info you get in the FBS magazine. Here is a sample two pages from last year’s national champ Montana St.
Montana St Left Page
Montana St Right Page
There are 126 games between FBS and FCS teams this year and you can be fully prepared for each one by becoming an FCS expert with my FCS magazine. As I mentioned above you can get $5 off the FCS digital magazine this week with the code word BLOGSpecial26. Here is a link to purchase the digital FCS magazine (FCS Digital magazine click here)
