On every right-hand team page in the magazine, I list that teams’ current home power ratings. These home ratings go from a low of two points to a high of six points. I have nine sets of power ratings and this is the adjustment I give to the home team.

Is home field really an advantage? As I mentioned I have a large difference of the adjustment I give to the toughest home teams versus the teams’ with very little home edge. Over the past three years the 136 FBS home teams have compiled a record of 1684-933 in home games for a winning percentage of 64.3%. Over the last five years the record has remained consistent with FBS teams having a combined 2765-1559 63.9% edge. This is the 32nd year of the magazine and there has never been a year in that span where home teams won under 50% of their games.

This is a multi-part series, and I will go thru all the factors that I use to determine my current home power rating number for each team. Those five factors that I look at are:

1. Straight Up Home Record last year, last 3 years, last 5 years.
2. Average Attendance for each school and percentage crowd is of the stadium.
3. My home and away Game Grades for each team for current year, 3-year and 5-year
4. ATS Record last year, last 3 years, last 5 years average.
5. My personal influence. Sometimes it is not the size of the crowd but the loudness and intensity of the crowd during the game. Other factors I use my personal judgment are would be altitude and travel time.

Today I am going to look at my Average Game Grades for each team when they play at home. Let me first explain what my Average Game Grade is. When I started my magazine, I had developed a formula which matched up the rush offense of one team, versus the rush defense of their upcoming opponent and gave a projected amount of rush yards. I devised the formula for pass offense vs pass defense and points offense versus points defense. This formula than projected the results for the upcoming game. Each teams power rating is not adjusted by the total yards or total points but rather by the difference from what was expected. Let me give you an example from 2022 of what I mean. If you based it just on the yards gained and adjusted your power rating, then Tennessee rushing for 250 yards versus Louisiana Tech would naturally be better than rushing for just 175 yards versus Georgia. My Power rating system however would grade the performance versus Georgia as much stronger.  Georgia led the nation in rush defense allowing just 77.1 ypg and 2.88 ypc. My computer would have forecast Tennessee to rush for 106 yards vs the tough Spartan rush D. Louisiana Tech was at the other end of the spectrum with their rush D allowing 243 rush yards per game and 6.12 ypc. Those totals came against weaker rush offenses than Tennessee! My computer would have forecast Tennessee to rush for 326 rush yards. Tennessee rushing for 175 versus Georgia would have actually raised their power ratings as they exceeded expectations. Rushing for 250 yards vs Louisiana Tech’s porous rush defense would have lowered their grade!

To get an average game grade I just reversed the formula. I have the opponents’ grades for all the categories and after the game is over, we have the actual stats. I will use some basic numbers to make it simple. If team A has a rush offense of 10 and team B has a rush defense rated at 7, then team A should rush for 200 yards. Now if the game has been played, I just take the opponent rush defense of 7 reverse the chart and say that rushing for 200 yards versus a 7 level rush defense would equate to being a 10-rush offense. I then add up the power ratings of what the team actually achieved and that equates to an Average Game Grade. My average game grades also add in a home field advantage to the expectation level.

Now that you know what the average game grade is, I will start by showing you what level each team has played to at home the last 3 years. I gave 40% of the grade to 2025, 32.5% to 2024 and 27.5% of the grade to 2023. Average Home Game Grade.

In 2023 Ohio State was #1 at 121.09 with Georgia at #2, Michigan #3 and Oregon #4. Kansas was #111 and #117 in 2019 and 2021 but in 2022 vaulted up to #35 in home Average Game Grade which was the biggest jump of any team, and they moved up even more to #21 in ‘23. Baylor had been #14 and #31 in its home stadium the in 2021 and 2022 but fell to #81 in ‘23. In 2024 Texas was #1 at 125.3 with Ohio St #2. Indiana had been just #86 in 2023 but was #3 in 2024! Penn St, Alabama, USC and Ole Miss were next. Last year Indiana not only won a National Title but also had the top Home AGG at 129.32 with Oregon #2 at 125.32 and Ohio St #3 with 125.26. My initial reaction was surprise to see Florida St at #4 but they won their home games by an average of 43-16, dominated Alabama at home, lost to Miami Fla by just 6. USC, Texas Tech, Alabama and Miami were all at the top of the home AGG last year.

At the bottom end of these rankings in 2023 were teams that have indeed struggled at home in UMass, Akron, FIU and Charlotte. The lowest rated Power 5 team in home games used to be Vanderbilt.  This made sense as in many SEC home games the visitors outnumber the home teams fans at the game. Tennessee and Georgia dominate the crowd when they travel there. Clark Lea had done a great job of changing that up and even though they are still outnumbers in the majority if not all SEC home games they were #16 last year. This year the P4 team at the bottom of the rankings was Syracuse (#132). Here is the complete chart the last 3 years of Average Home Game Grades ranked by the three-year average.

The teams at the top are ones you would expect in Ohio St, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Penn St, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Georgia, USC, Oklahoma, Miami and in just the last two years Indiana has risen all the way up to #12 despite being #86 in 2023. The lowest rated P4 team is Stanford at #93 with a three-year AGG of 95.0 with Purdue #88 at 95.47.

Three years ago I added a column to the right which is the teams that had the biggest difference in the past year vs the average of previous two years. I highlighted in GREEN the teams that made the biggest rise in the rankings. Last year the top 10 of that group were….

2024 Biggest Home Edge Increases

1. Indiana +74
2. Colorado +71.5
3. Army +66.5.
4. Arizona St +65
5. UNLV +63
6. Connecticut +63
7. Georgia Tech +61
8. Vanderbilt +49.5
9. Mami Fla +49
10. Nevada +45.5
11. Baylor +41
12. BYU +40.5
13. Boston College +40.5

This year the top 15 of that group were…

2025 Biggest Home Edge Increases

1. USF +89
2. San Diego St +66.5
3. Old Dominion +65.5
4. Florida St +61.5
5. Vanderbilt +60.5
6. Wake Forest +58.5
7. North Texas +52.5
8. Toledo +47.5
9. BYU +47
10. Virginia +46
11. Western Michigan +45.5
12. Indiana +43.5
13. East Carolina +43
14. James Madison +38.5
15. Kennesaw St +35

I also highlighted the teams in RED as the teams who had the biggest decrease in the ratings. I mentioned the drop Baylor took in 2023. They had been almost unbeatable in their somewhat new home stadium but in ’23 shockingly went 0-7 vs FBS foes! The teams with the largest drop in the rankings in 2024 from their average of 2022-23 and they were led by Florida St which went from #12 and #13 the in ’22-’23 to just #118 in ‘24. I mentioned Oregon St in earlier blogs and they dropped 76.5 spots from the previous two years rank. Here is the list from last year…

Teams largest drop 2024 from 2022-23 average.

1. Florida St  -105.5
2. Oregon St -76.5
3. Air Force -57
4. Oklahoma St -56.5
5. Troy -51
6. Toledo -44
7. Purdue -43.5
8. Miss St -43.5
9. North Carolina -41.5
10. NCState -40
11. Michigan -39
12. Utah -38.5
13. Middle Tenn -38

This year Syracuse led the way. After finishing #47 and #42 and the Carrier Dome was very loud when then knocked Miami out of the ACC title game in 2024, the Orange fell to #132 last year. Clemson’s Death Valley which is always in the top 20 fell to #77 after a rare 3-4 home record losing season. Here is the complete list…

Teams largest drop 2025 from 2023-24 average.

1. Syracuse -87.5
2. South Alabama -70
3. Troy -60.5
4. Clemson -58
5. Kansas St -57
6. Northern Illinois -50.5
7. Colorado -49.5
8. UCLA -48
9. Oklahoma St -46
10. North Carolina -44
11. Rice -42.5
12. Kansas -40.5
13. Liberty -38.5
14. Maryland -38
15. Jax St -36.5

Much like the straight up records of teams at home, this chart favors the Blue Bloods and the best teams of football. In 2022 Georgia played to a 120.1 level at home which was #2 but played to a 124.23 level on the road which was the nation’s best. That means that their Away Average Game Grade was actually better than their Home Average Game Grade. In ’23 Michigan played to a 117.8 level at home (#8) but were at a 127.2 level on the road which was the nation’s best. The next blog will break down which teams played to the highest level at home vs how they did on the road.

This years magazine is 376 pages and the biggest and best ever. Here are the different ways you can order the magazine.

Option #1 – Pick one up at your local Barnes and Noble or Books-a-Million store. When you go into a Barnes and Noble you get two different cover choices in each store! The official on sale date is July 4^th but it is hitting some stores sooner. It is also available at Books-a-Million which all have the national cover. These two distributors are our exclusive vendors of the magazine, and they are not available at Walmart’s, Walgreens, Grocery Stores, other bookstores or drug stores so save your gas. The only two brick and mortar store they are available are Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million.

Option #2 – Buy the Hard copy of the magazine at philsteele.com or call 1-866-918-7711. The total cost depends on where you live and which of the four types of shipping you choose. It will cost you in the ballpark of $10 for shipping and tax. The biggest advantage of buying online is that When you buy the Hard copy you GET the DIGITAL version of the magazine ($19.99) for FREE and it is updated thru September. Your digital access begins immediately when you purchase. You also get your choice of covers (National, SEC, Midwest, Southwest, West or East Coast) as these are generally mailed out the same or next business day as the order. Order Here!

Option #3 – Buy the digital magazine. The best thing about the digital magazine is that it is updated all the way thru the month of September. If a coach gets fired (that has happened the last couple of years) we update it. If a player is injured and out for the year we CIRCLE him in the magazine. If a player is added late (very rare) we put him in. Any changes to the team from the start of June thru the month of September is updated in the digital version. When you go to the philsteele.com store you will not see a picture there, you need to click on Digital Editions and order it there. It will be activated immediately giving you instant access. Order the Digital Here!

Option #4 – Order the VIP Bundle – The price of the VIP bundle is $44.95. With the VIP bundle you get the National Cover of the magazine. All VIP’s received EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital version of the magazine for one week, but that bonus is gone as the digital is now available for everyone. You receive two magazines PLUS the Digital Magazine. You also receive FOUR Free issues of my Inside the Pressbox Newsletter ($20 per issue – $80 value) which gives you my Forecast and my computers forecast on EVERY FBS game each week. You also receive access to Phil Steele Plus ($25 per month) for the months of June, July, August and September! The VIP Bundle also includes SHIPPING so it is basically just $10 more than ordering the magazine by itself! Order the Reg VIP Bundle Here!!

Option #5 – THE BEST BUY – Order the Super VIP Bundle – The price of the SUPER VIP bundle is $74.95. With the Super VIP Bundle you receive

TWO magazines INCLUDING SHIPPING ($69 value!), EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital version for one week (that happened already), order shipped next business day. Use the 2^nd magazine when your first one gets dogeared or sell/give it to a friend.

Digital magazine ($19.95 value) FREE – The digital magazine is updated thru September (see option 3) and you get immediate access to the digital version upon purchase.

Four Issues of my Inside the Pressbox newsletter ($80 value) which gives you my forecast and my COMPUTERs forecast on EVERY FBS games each week (including FBS vs FCS) the same bonuses that the VIP’s get. You also receive…

FCS Digital Magazine ($25) FREE – Two full pages on Every FCS team laid out the same way the pages are for the FBS magazine. There are 128 FCS teams so over 250 pages!

NFL Digital Magazine ($15) FREE – Four full pages on Every NFL team and a Fantasy Football section!

Phil Steele Plus ($99 value) ENTIRE SEASON FREE – This is a tremendous addition. If you purchase the full year access to Phil Steele Plus it is $99 but you get it included in the Super VIP Bundle Purchase the Super VIP Bundle now and get the entire year of Phil Steele Plus FREE!! Here is a link to all the great info available on Phil Steele Plus including the schedule predictor! Order the Super VIP Bundle Here!!

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