Over the next couple of weeks, I will be releasing the Hits and Misses of each team in each conference so you can see who faces the easiest and hardest schedule in each conference. I did a series looking back on my strength of schedule for each conference and in the Power 4 each schedule was a MAJOR force in the leagues overall finish. The Group of Five leagues last year did not have the same impact with more teams going from worst to first and vice versa from first to worst. I did not see some of the moves happening in advance but with yet another year of analyzing portal moves should be just as sharp on the G6 teams as I was on the Power Four teams.
The first conference I am looking at is the Big Ten. Last year Ohio St faced a very soft schedule which I deemed the 3rd easiest in the league and it got easier with what was perceived to be their toughest foe Penn St slogging thru a mediocre year. That did not prepare them well for the postseason (0-2). USC and Michigan both played bottom 5 schedules and just missed out on the playoffs at 7-2. Wisconsin meanwhile took on the nation’s toughest schedule and did a great job hanging onto coach Fickell despite the 2-7 Big Ten year.
I have all of last year’s records for this year opponents listed and they add up to 729-729 so the math is correct. There are no new members so it balances.
The Big Ten has played a nine-game schedule for a while and that means half the teams get five Big Ten home games and play just four on the road and half the teams play five Big Ten road games with just four at home. It alternates each year. This year’s Lucky 9 teams are Michigan, Ohio St, Rutgers, Oregon, Indiana, Mich St, Maryland, UCLA and Penn St. It is interesting that the top 3 Ohio St, Oregon and Indiana all battled thru the five-game road schedule last year and went a combined 15-0 on the road.
Based strictly on last year’s records Wisconsin draws the most manageable schedule with their foes 28-53 last year in Big Ten play. The Badgers deserve it after their unbearable grueling slate last year! The toughest schedule based on that criterion goes to Ohio St with their Big Ten foes going 51-30 in conference play last year. Now, things change after a year. Penn St should be back near the top with a plethora of Iowa St transfers and have a winning Big Ten record after going 3-6 last year. I do slot most of the Big Ten teams in about the same categories as last year so unlike my next blog (the Big 12) there does not figure to be wild swings in teams records.
USC draws the leagues toughest schedule as I have eight teams rated purple or red and they face five of them and face just one GREEN Teams. There are four teams that have to face each of the preseason Top 10 teams (RED) and they are USC, Nebraska, Northwestern and Michigan. USC and Michigan as both look even stronger and are close to that RED category. I list 3 other teams in PURPLE in Washington, Iowa and Penn St. The next level (BLUE) teams are Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Maryland, UCLA and Wisconsin. The only GREEN teams are Rutgers, Michigan St and Purdue and all figure to be improved but they combined for three Big Ten wins last year.
There are two teams in the league that only draw ZERO of the RED teams and they are Wisconsin and Penn St. Wisconsin also benefits from drawing all three GREEN teams the only team in the league to do so. Like I said, coach Fickell deserves it after the gauntlet and injuries he went thru last year. Now, can he actually keep his starting QB healthy?
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