When I worked for ESPN full time, I put out a weekly article entitled the Vegas Power Ratings. I still have all the sources that I used to produce that article as it featured my plus/minus ratings which closely resemble Vegas’s numbers as well as three different casinos including the fine folks over at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook @SuperBookSports.

This is not the AP poll but gives you an idea of how much teams would be favored over another team if they met on a neutral field. I use these to get an idea of lines on upcoming games. Keep in mind just because a team beat someone last week does not mean they would be favored over them in the Vegas ratings. I will update these each week during the year as always.

This week all the controversy is about Florida State being left out of the playoffs but if Vegas was picking the final four team’s they would have left them out as well. Looking at the number right now Florida State is #15 in the Vegas Power ratings.. All you must do is look at the line in the Orange Bowl where Georgia is -14 against undefeated Florida State! Now, Ohio State lost their starting QB a few years ago and was still allowed in the playoffs so why not Florida State? The key is what those teams looked like on the field. In 2014 in the game Ohio State was down to their #3 QB they took on Wisconsin and put up 558 yards offense and won 59-0. Could Ohio State be a top team with their #3 QB? They proved it in that game and went on to win the national title. Florida State had TWO games to prove they could be just as strong without Jordan Travis. They had just 224 total yards in a win vs Florida. In the ACC title game, they managed just 12 FD and 219 yards vs Louisville. Jordan Travis threw for 275 ypg hitting 64% while their backup QB’s hit just 20-47 (42%) with 94.5 ypg. Florida St averaged 44.1 ppg with Travis and less than half that (20 ppg) without him. Florida St averaged 496 ypg with Travis and just 44.6% of that (221 ypg) without him. All season long I said Vegas does not care about record or who beat who it just establishes who it thinks is the stronger team and who would be favored against whom.

It is interesting that if Vegas was picking the final four teams it would have Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. Washington is undefeated but a 4 point dog in Vegas to a one loss Texas team. Both Texas and Washington would be underdogs if they took on Georgia or Ohio State.

Here is the bowl edition of the 2023 Vegas Power Ratings!