When I worked for ESPN full time, I put out a weekly article entitled the Vegas Power Ratings. I still have all the sources that I used to produce that article as it featured my plus/minus ratings which closely resemble Vegas’s numbers as well as three different casinos including the fine folks over at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook @SuperBookSports.
This is not the AP poll but gives you an idea of how much teams would be favored over another team if they met on a neutral field. I use these to get an idea of lines on upcoming games. Keep in mind just because a team beat someone last week does not mean they would be favored over them in the Vegas ratings. AP voters must vote that way, but Vegas does not. I will update these each week during the year as always.
Last year all the controversy is about Florida State being left out of the playoffs but if Vegas was picking the final four team’s they would have left them out as well. Florida State was #15 in the Vegas Power ratings prior to the bowl games! All season long I said Vegas does not care about record or who beat who it just establishes who it thinks is the stronger team and who would be favored against whom.
Here is the beauty of the Vegas Power Ratings after week 7. Four weeks ago, Oregon at home beat Ohio State by 1. Naturally if you are an AP voter Oregon is undefeated and BEAT Ohio State (which now has one loss) head-to-head. You must put Oregon ahead of Ohio St in the poll. Oregon has been the consensus #1 ever since. Vegas does not have to put Oregon ahead of Ohio St. Ohio State was a 3.5 road favorite in Autzen which means Vegas thought Ohio State was at least 6.5 points better than Oregon. This week Ohio St is #1 in the Vegas poll and if Ohio State faced Oregon at a neutral site, the Buckeyes would indeed be favored this time by 1 point despite Oregon being #1. Another solid point. USC is 4-5 and not ranked. USC is actually 5 plays away from being 9-0 and probably a top 5 team. Michigan got a TD on 4th and Goal to beat them. They led Minnesota by 7 in the 4Q and had the ball but fumbled. They led Penn St the entire game but lost in two OT’s. They led Maryland by 14 and up 7 had a game clinching FG blocked and Maryland got a late TD to beat them. They were stopped on downs at the Washington 1 and 14 at the end when down by 5. While they are not ranked in the AP poll the Vegas Power ratings have them the #18 team in the country! Yes, 4-5 USC would be favored over some ranked teams.
Here is the week twelve edition of the 2024 Vegas Power Ratings!
