In a previous blog, I gave you the opponent win percentage for last years teams. Wisconsin was the clear cut “winner” of facing the toughest schedule as they faced 5 teams in bowl games, EIGHT teams that were ranked at the end of the year and their foes were a combined 110-53 67.5%! It was interesting looking back at that list (Click Here) that Vanderbilt faced the #125 schedule in terms of opponent’s record (69-83 45%) facing just two teams that were ranked at the end of the year and that was the weakest of the P4 schools.
Each year in the magazine I give you a list of the OVER rated and UNDER rated schedules for the year. Using the NCAA method and basing a team’s strength of opponents records from last year has flaws, and those flaws are being amplified in the transfer portal era.
Last year prior to the season I used two teams to illustrate the flaws of using last year’s overall opponent records. Based on 2024 opponent records, using the NCAA method, Old Dominion was going to face the 40th toughest schedule as their opponents were a combined 83-65 (56.1%) last year. On the other hand, Michigan was facing the NCAA methods #127 schedule with their foes 68-84 (44.7%) in 2024. However, while ODU was going to face just two Power 4 foes, Michigan played 10 P4 opponents! Which schedule do you think is tougher? Tennessee has the #86 schedule according to the NCAA method but plays 8 SEC teams, including Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Florida. Here’s a list of teams with an Overrated Schedule using the NCAA method and those with an Underrated Schedule. One of Michigan’s opponents bore out that example. In 2024 Oklahoma was just 6-7 for a losing record. I had Oklahoma my #1 Surprise team. A Surprise team is a non top ten team that I think will make the playoff and the Sooners not only made the playoff they hosted a home game!
The main flaw of the NCAA method is basing the ratings on opponents’ records from the PREVIOUS season. Let’s look at a couple of examples from the past. In 2020 I had Northwestern as my #2 Most Improved Team, and they made it to the Big Ten Title game plus won their bowl. NC State was my #4 MIT, and were 8-3 & No. 24 AP. However, if you used the NCAA method, you got credit for playing two teams that were a combined 7-17 in 2019. On the flip side in ’20, Baylor was clearly a much weaker team than their 11-1 in 2019. They had just nine returning starters and a new head coach with no spring practice. LSU (15-0 ’20) was replacing almost the entire team. By the NCAA method, you would have gotten credit for playing teams that were 26-3 in ’19, yet those two teams were a combined 7-12 in 2020.
In 2024 I had Indiana, East Carolina, Louisiana, Marshall, Florida and South Carolina on my Most Improved list so I expected each teams to be in a bowl game in ’24. Those 6 teams were a combined 27-47 in 2023, so the NCAA method had them as weak teams. My power ratings rated all 6 as bowl squads and rated them a much tougher test if drawn on the schedule and as it turned out the six had a combined record of 58-23 in 2024! In 2012, Auburn went 3-9 and any FCS team that won 4 or more games in 2012 would have counted as a tougher game in the NCAA method than facing an Auburn team that eventually played for the National Title! I had Auburn rated 62 spots higher in my Power Poll than Kent St and 81 spots higher than Old Dominion, making them a much tougher foe. The NCAA method had Kent St (11-3) as the 19th best record and ODU (11-2, #9) in ‘12. Auburn was ranked #109 in win % in ‘12 so Kent St was rated 90 and ODU 100 spots of being a tougher foe than Auburn using the NCAA method.
Let me delve a little further into why my method is stronger. In ’19 using the NCAA method Georgia St was going to take on the 25th toughest schedule with their 2019 foes win % being 57.4% in 2018. Indiana was taking on the #109 schedule as their 2019 foes were a combined 72-79 (47.7%) in ’18. My ratings had GSU taking on the #100 schedule and Indiana #47. Also, my ratings had Colorado with the 5th toughest schedule and they were just #65 by the NCAA method. GSU did not face a ranked foe all season and the only P5 team they faced was Tennessee (off a losing ssn). GSU also faced an FCS foe. Indiana faced nine P5 teams including both Ohio St and Penn St which finished in the Top 10 and four ranked foes. Colorado faced 10 P5 foes including five ranked foes (Oregon #5 AP). It is a no brainer that both Indiana and Colorado faced much tougher schedules in ’19.
Ok, I have clearly established the flaws. Here are the two boxes from last years magazine where I called out the most OVER rated and UNDER rated schedules.
Now that the season is over we can go back and look at the differences of opponents records from 2024 to how good the foes actually were in 2025. Here are two charts side by side. The one on the left is the chart I put out a couple of days ago. This Is the record of the foes that a team faced during the regular season in 2025. The chart on the right is what was in the magazine last year which is the records of the foes vs that same schedule based on 2024’s records. Virginia Tech is at the top with a 14.7% difference. I had them as the #7 Underrated schedule. Tech’s foes in 2024 had a combined record of 75-76 49.7% but in 2025 those same teams had a record of 101-56 64.3%!!! Virginia had a losing record in 2024 but was in the ACC title game last year. They faced just 5 teams that had a winning record in 2024 but 9 of their foes had a winning record in 2025! I had Michigan as facing the most underrated schedule and they came in #3. Michigan’s 2025 foes had a combined record of just 68-84 44.7% in 2024 but combined to go 84-69 54.9% and I used Oklahoma as one of the examples earlier in the article.
At the bottom end the Texas A&M is interesting as the Aggies schedule looked tough but they ended up facing just one SEC team ended up with a winning conference record in 2025. They faced just 5 teams that finished with a winning record and teams considered playoff contenders in the preseason like LSU and South Carolina were a combined 4-12 in SEC play! Vanderbilt took on foes that were 83-71 in 2024 but those teams were just 69-83 in 2025.
When I do my toughest schedule for the magazine, I base it on the strength of this years squad using my nine sets of power ratings and my computer factors it all in. While the Power 4 conferences all have finalized their schedules for this year, I am still waiting on the G6 teams to produce theirs. Once they have released in March I will provided you with the updated win loss records from 2025 for this years schedules but the more accurate toughest schedules will be in my magazine when it comes out in June.
2026 College Magazine Price will be going up!!
BEAT THE PRICE INCREASE – In 2020 I was prepared to stop selling the magazine in stores and limit it to just my website. I was honestly thinking of perhaps giving up on printing the magazine all together as it was not profitable to do so. Krifka Steffy who oversaw magazines at Barnes and Noble saved the magazine in numerous ways and in 2020 took a big chance that there would be football and bought the magazines up front. If there was no season, Barnes and Noble would take the loss, not me. I can’t thank her enough for that. We also entered a deal with the good folks at Learfield that help us put out the magazine. I got away from a poor deal with my magazine distributors in the next couple of years and now deal Exclusively with Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million. I am pleased to say that the magazine is a labor of love, and I will continue to put out the magazine for years and years to come. I spend over 6 months working 80+ hours a week to produce a magazine of this detail. My staff spends the entire 6+ months working on the magazine as well. The cost of printing the magazine over the last 10-15 years has doubled plus getting it on trucks to the stores is a large expense. The cost to mail the magazine also rises yearly. Labor costs have probably risen the fastest. I have held the line at $19.99 per magazine for the last 6 years not wanting to break that threshold but the magazine is 360 plus pages, and we will be bumping up the price this year. The new cost is $24.95 but the good news is you can still get it at all Barnes and Nobles for that price. Naturally if you buy online we must charge you for shipping.
You can beat the price increase as during the month of February you can still get the magazine at last year’s price.
Option #1 – Buy the digital magazine for $19.99. The price of the digital magazine will not increase this year as there have been no additional costs to producing the digital version. The best thing about the digital magazine is that it is updated all the way thru the month of September. If a coach gets fired (that has happened the last couple of years) we update it. If a player is injured and out for the year we CIRCLE him in the magazine. If a player is added late (very rare) we put him in. Any changes to the team from the start of June thru the month of September is updated in the digital version. When you go to the store you will not see a picture there, you need to click on Digital Editions and order it there. It will not be activated until the middle of June and once again the price for the digital will not be going up and it will remain $19.99 the entire year. ORDER HERE
Option #2 – Buy the Hard copy of the magazine for $19.99 PLUS SHIPPING. This price will be going up to $24.95 on March 1. You get to choose the method of shipping so the total cost depends on where you live and which of the Five types of shipping you choose. It will cost you in the ballpark of $10 for shipping and tax. When you buy the Hard copy you GET the DIGITAL version of the magazine ($19.99) for FREE and it is updated thru September. Your access begins in the middle of June. You also get your choice of covers (National, SEC, Midwest, Southwest, West or East Coast) as these mail out about 10 days after the magazine goes to print. ORDER HERE
Option #3 – Order the VIP Bundle – The price of the VIP bundle is $39.95 and will be going to $44.95 on March 1. February orders save that $5. With the VIP bundle you get the National Cover of the magazine but unlike the regular magazine orders we mail these as they roll off the press which last year was just 6 days after we sent the magazine to the press. You will be the first person in the country to have a copy in your hands and the magazine will not be in Barnes and Noble until July 4th and the regular magazine orders do not get mailed out til the next week. You also get EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital version of the magazine which is usually two days after we send it to the press and before the magazine is even printed! You get one week of EXLUSIVE ACCESS. You also receive FOUR Free issues of my Inside the Pressbox Newsletter ($20 per issue – $80 value) which gives you my Forecast and my computers forecast on EVERY FBS game each week. You also receive access to Phil Steele Plus ($25 per month) for the months of June, July, August and September! The VIP Bundle also includes SHIPPING so it is basically just $10 more than ordering the magazine by itself! ORDER HERE
Option #4 – Order the Super VIP Bundle – The price of the SUPER VIP bundle is $69.95 and it will be going to $74.95 on March 1. With the Super VIP Bundle you receive TWO magazines INCLUDING SHIPPING, mailed out as they roll off the press, EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital version one week before anyone else, Four Issues of Inside the PressBox ($80 value) the same bonuses that the VIP’s get. You also receive…
FCS Digital Magazine ($25) FREE – Two full pages on Every FCS team laid out the same way the pages are for the FBS magazine. There are 128 FCS teams so over 250 pages!
NFL Digital Magazine ($15) FREE – Four full pages on Every NFL team and a Fantasy Football section!
Phil Steele Plus ($25 month) ENTIRE SEASON FREE – This is a tremendous addition and is currently on the Super VIP Bundle but we may eventually take it off in the upcoming months. If you purchase the full year access it is $99 but you get it included in the Super VIP Bundle right now for just $69.95 but only until the end of February. Purchase the Super VIP Bundle now and get the entire year of Phil Steele Plus FREE!! Beat the price increase and order your magazines in FEBRUARY! ORDER SUPER VIP HERE
Beat the price increase and order your magazines in FEBRUARY!
