In 2023 I put the Schedule predictor up on Phil Steele Plus as I wanted to see where all my power ratings lined up on each game and if one set of power ratings fared better than the others vs the spread on a weekly basis. I also wanted to have a file where I could see which power ratings lined up for each game. The first Schedule Predictor had 10 different categories and was very solid.
In 2024, I added in six new categories and also added a consensus Best Bet. What I did was if more than one column had a Best Bet I added them up. Two or more on the same team would be a YELLOW Almost Best Bet and three or more on the same team was a GREEN BEST BET. If one column had a BEST BET on one team and another had a BEST BET on their opponent they cancelled each other out. The Best Bets went 76-49 and the Almost Best Bets went 60-34 for a very successful debut.
Last year I added another column and it was more great success. The Best Bets went 90-62 and the Almost Best Bets went 37-26. We update the Schedule Predictor every day during the football season with the latest line included. Here is a snapshot from the October 25th Schedule Predictor so you can see what I am talking about.
If you are wondering what the GREEN over the teams names and scores mean those are games that I am sharing on the Phil Steele Plus Tour with you that week and that is how Todd knows how to pull the games over.
Here is a breakdown of each of the columns.
The Vegas Line – These are the current lines on this weeks’ games and the final lines for all of the previous games during the year. This is updated every morning to give you the latest lines and past games remain there all year with the final lines.
Scores and Schedule – We list the scores of each game and the team in BOLD is the team that covered that game against the spread. We update all the Times and TV stations each game is on and update the lines during the week and update the final Saturday numbers as well. After the games we bold the spread winners and put in the scores. These remain up there all year so you can use as reference and to help fill in your magazine with scores and lines.
Last met Line – Basically, if a team was -10 at home last year and are now in the road the line would be -4 as you would take away the 3-point home edge from the previous meeting and add 3 to the now home team for a 6-point change. You can look at the line to see which team would be the choice of this category. If a block is in all Green it is at least 7+ point away from current line and is a Best Bet. In the sample to the left there were 5 Best Bets. Since the team names are in black they won. Here are two examples of how you have to do the math. North Carolina was +3 on the road in ‘24 and they would have been -3 at home. In ‘25 at home they were +11 for a 14 point difference and hence a Best Bet. In ‘23 Memphis was -9 at a neutral field adding 3 to Memphis for being home they would be -12. Last year they were +4’ at home which was a 16.5 point difference. The team names in Green mean that the Last Met Line Category’s pick covered. The teams in RED meant that the category lost its selection. Last year the Best Bets went 47-38, in ‘24 70-56 in this category and over three years this category is 154-129.
Last met Score – A six-point difference. Example if you lost by 3 on the road last year and are now at home you would win by 3 at home with the home field edge shift. If a block is in all Green it is 7+ point away from current line and is a Best Bet. In this example from October 25th last year this column had 16 best bets in this slice of games and went 10-6. In this example Iowa beat Minnesota by 17 on the road in ‘23 and now with the 6 point shift should win by 23 and they were favored by just 8.5. Last year this was a Best Bet on Iowa and a winner. Last year this category went 88-76 one year after going just 65-72 on Best Bets. If the teams did not meet last year it is in Black and a no play.
Plus Minus – I took my Plus Minus ratings on page 32 and added my home field edge from the home teams team page in the magazine to get to this number. The Plus Minus ratings change during the year. The future weeks have the opening plus minus and the current week has the current weeks rating. Any full GREEN block is a Best Bet but please note the line on the game. As an example last year it shows Virginia Tech -4 and Virg Tech won 42-34 but it is in RED as a loss. That is because the line was Virg Tech was -6 so the column was saying California would cover. If the name remains in black after the week that means that the Best Bet won and if the team’s name is in red, the Best Bet lost. This gives you plays on almost every game with the Best Bets highlighted in Green. For the non Best Bets the games that covered are in Green and the other in RED. In ‘23 the Plus Minus Best Bets went 45-34 during the season and in ‘24 the Best Bets went 65-43 for a solid year. Last year this column had it’s best year at 105-67 and is 213-143 over 3 years.
Average Game Grade – This is updated weekly with the difference between each teams Average Game Grade and the home field edge added in. Any full GREEN block is a Best Bet but please note the line on the game. If the name remains in black after the week that means that the Best Bet won and if the team’s name is in red, the Best Bet lost. In the example I list above the Best Bets went 6-2. The Average Game Grades are updated weekly on Phil Steele.com and I do the math for each game. I think the AGG is one of the best sets of Power Ratings out there. In 2024 the AGG Best Bets went 41-30 during the regular season. In ‘23 the Average Game Grade Best Bets went 79-49. Last year the AGG Best Bets went 102-77 so the three year record on these is now 182-126.
Phil’s Preseason Line and Action Network Preseason Lines – This is my personal Preseason line on every FBS vs FBS game and Action Network Preseason lines. These were the lines that were made over the summer prior to the season. I left the lines up there for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to see how much difference there was between the preseason lines and the current lines to get an idea of how much they change during the year. B) I wanted to see if there was any value either playing on or against the line moves. I started making any difference of 10 points or more a “Best Bet” and this way we can see where the value is. During the year the Action Network Best Bets of lines they made in the preseason did well at 31-20 in ‘23. Collin Wilson was kind enough to let me share his preseason lines once again the last two years! Also I have MY personal line of every game for the entire season posted in the current Schedule with Numbers chart and you can access them now if you are a Phil Steele Plus member. In 2023 they went just 37-41. In 2024 the Best Bets for my Preseason lines went 80-47!! Last year it was another strong year hitting 91-58 and the three year record is now 171-105 the last 2 years!!
Situation A/B/C – This category breaks down each team’s situation. I will give each team an effort level of 1 to 5 depending what situation they are in. Each team has 15 points (3 points per week) for a five week month and 12 points for a four week month. If a team uses a 5-effort level for one game they have just 10 points left for the other 4 games that month. This will help you discover when a team is playing its most important game of the month vs a team playing its third for fourth most important. If the number is a POSITIVE number that means the advantage belongs to the home team. If the number is a NEGATIVE number that means the advantage belongs to the ROAD team. Any edge of 1.5 or -1.5 or more is regarded as a Best Bet which went 73-43 in 2024 and 64-48 during the 2023 season. This past year the Situation Best Bets were the stars as they took home the title for top Best Bet record at 104-52 66.7%. That is a three year record of 241-163 for 63%!
REVENGE – If a game has a REVENGE 3 then that is a BEST BET on the team that LOST last year as 90% of the time they were favored to win. Revenge does not apply to just any team that lost last year it has to deal with if they were favored or if it cost them something major or something happened in the game (team scoring a TD in final seconds when could have taken a knee). Revenge 2 or Revenge 1 are for teams that lost last year but were not favored. Two plays made the sample above. Georgia Tech was upset by Syracuse after being favored on the road and it was the 2nd game after their Ireland trip. The got revenge 41-16. Utah was upset by Colorado in 2024 and embarrassed 49-24. They got revenge last year 53-7 at home. In 2023 the REVENGE BEST BETS went a super 48-20 71%!!!! In 2024 it was another super year at 41-20 for a TWO YEAR record of 89-40 69%!! Just when you thought you found the Goose that laid the Golden Egg they went just 34-31 last year for the Revenge 3 plays.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – This grades the current strength of schedule that each team has taken on this year. The Best Bet (GREEN) is on the team that is listed and it shows the edge. As an example, Wash St had taken on Washington, Ole Miss and Virginia and favored the #21 schedule with Toledo facing the #115 schedule. Wash St had a 94 schedule edge and won 28-7 and were +1’ because they were 3-4 and Toledo was 4-3. The Strength of Schedule plays went 86-65 last year, 55-41 in ‘23 and over three years are 180-136. Yellow is an almost Best Bet and Green Highlight is a Best Bet.
Last 4 Weeks AGG – At the start of the year I experimented with using the Last 4 weeks from the previous year and while the Best Bets were 3-1 the overall plays were 45-62. I will do that again this year for week 1 but take those numbers for what they are. The last 4 weeks is not listed in the magazine team pages but is listed on the Phil Steele Plus team pages. Naturally after 4 weeks the AGG of the last 4 weeks is the same as the AGG for the team for the season. Last 4 weeks AGG cannot start until after week 5 and they get stronger as the season goes on. This shows CURRENT form vs teams as it only counts the last 4 weeks and after 8 games would be 50% of the games counted and the early 50% not counted. This is listed on the bottom of every team in Phil Steele Plus and had a GREAT year in ‘23. Starting after week five these plays went 44-26 the last 4 weeks of the Regular Season!!! In ‘24 these plays went 55-41 for the season. In the Example to the left they were 8-3 on Best Bets but this is one of my favorite columns and you can jump on a hot team late in the year that is undervalued and it gets stronger each week as the season goes on! Last year the Best Bets went 79-53 and is 178-120 over the last 3 years.
Last Time Here Line and Score – This was an addition in 2024 as it will show the line the Late Time here or if they did not meet last year, in their last meeting adjusted with the 6 points if necessary. Check out Last time Met and Line and Score for more detailed explanation. The Last time Here Line Best Bets went 31-15 in ‘24 and the Last time Here Score Best Bets went 42-25. I did not pay close attention to these columns as they were new last year and rarely used them on the Phil Steele Plus Tour with Selections but I said I would pay closer attention to them in ‘25. These two columns did not duplicate the previous success going 33-39 and 81-70 in 2025.
Technical Angles – This was an a new addition in ‘24 and did well. If there is a strong angle in favor of a HF, HD, AF, AD, Home, Away, Fav, Dog, Conf Fav etc, I will note what the angle is. To see the record just go to the Team page (see example pg 48) and open up last 10 years SU & ATS results and you will see what each angle is. There is not enough space on the Schedule Predictor to list each angle but to have access to the schedule predictor are a a Phil Steele Plus Member and have access to each of those pages. In ‘24 in their first year the Best Bets (GREEN) for the Technical Angles went 41-21 with the Almost Best Bets (YELLOW) going 37-33. Last year I did not update all the angles I needed to (it is last column I update) and it went just 32-30. I will do a better job with updating this column this year and hopefully reclaiming ‘24’s success.
Conference YPG – This was an a new addition for 2024. I have a full page for the Conference YPG this year (pg 45) and I refer to it often in the magazine pointing out underrated and overrated teams. This is only available later in the year after teams have multiple conference games under their belt. In ‘24 the Best Bets GREEN went 29-10! Last year I changed it to a conference AGG and it went 37-31.
Consensus Best Bets – This was an a new addition in 2024. If 3, 4 or 5 Best Bets were all on the same side. If Best Bets were on different teams they cancel each other out. Well, I was very pleased with the results When 1.5 or 2 Best Bets were on the same team I made it an Almost Best Bet in YELLOW. When 3 or more were on the same team I made it a Best Bet (GREEN). The Best Bets went a super 76-49 on the year and the Almost Best Bets went 60-34! Last year it was 90-62 for the GREEN and 37-26 for the YELLOW. Make sure you check out the Schedule Predictor each week! Whether you are a self handicapper or just want some solid weekly selections as long as you are a Phil Steele Plus member you get all this information for FREE and updated daily!!!
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