I have had the Experience Chart in the magazine since 2002. That 2002 was Volume 8 of the magazine and the 2nd year since moving from black and white on newsprint up to color print and glossy pages. That first Experience chart had 8 categories. They were Senior Starters then Seniors in the two deep, Junior Starters, Juniors in the two deep, Sophomore starters, Sophomores in the two deep and Freshmen starters and Freshmen in the two deep.
Thru the years I have continued to improve the Experience Chart by adding in many more factors. The Experience Chart was the same from 2002-2008. In 2009 I kept the Senior starters and Seniors in the Two deep category but added percentage of lettermen returning, percentage of yards returning and percentage of tackles returning. I also added O-Line Career starts. A few years back I added percentage of big plays (Sacks, TFL’s, Int’s, pbu’s) on defense returning.
One thing I had not done is gone back and researched how the chart had done as being a predictor for the upcoming season. On page three of this last year’s magazine, you will notice the All-Meathead team which is produced by Jacob Hester, Bobby Carpenter and EJ Manuel Every time I have been on Off Campus Jacob has brought up the Experience Chart and many times, he has asked me how the Experience Chart has done, and I never had the answer. While I have added to the Experience Chart, I have never taken the time to analyze how the chart has done as a predictor. The last three years’ I have, and I was VERY pleased with the results!
I looked at the Experience Charts from 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011. I did not bother to look at 2020 as that was a strange year with some teams sitting out the year or playing just 6 games while some teams played a full schedule. Games were postponed, rescheduled, cancelled, etc. Some teams would be missing a third of their roster for some games. Not much can be culled from that type of year. I did not include 2020.
Here is what my 13 years of researching the Experience Chart has uncovered. There were 195 teams ranked in the Top 15 of the Experience Chart and 109 of them improved their record with 27 having the same record and only 60 of the teams 30% had a weaker record the next year. Teams ranked in the #16-30 slot had a 66.2% success rate with only 66 of the 195 having a weaker record. Teams in the #31-45 group were almost the same with a 62.6% success rate with 73 of the 195 teams having a weaker record. Overall is a team ranked in the top 60 of the Experience Chart 410 improved their record, 94 remained the same and 276 got weaker for a 64.6% success rate. That clearly proves there is an advantage to being a more experienced team!
The other end of the chart had even better success. Of the teams at the bottom 15 of the experience Chart 79.3% of the teams had a weaker or the same record as the previous year with just 24 teams managing to improve their record. Of the teams from #102-#116 only 70 of the 195 teams managed to improve their record for a 64.3% success rate of teams near the bottom having a weaker or the same record the next year. The next level of teams from #91-#105 had an even better 71.3% success rate with just 56 of the 195 teams improving their record. As you would expect teams in the next level (middle of the pack) were about a 50/50 proposition. I was very pleased with the results. Overall teams that rank #90 or lower on the experience chart have had a weaker record 308 times, the same record 59 times and a stronger record just 153 times for a 70.6% success rate.
Let me give you a few examples of teams that ranked in the Top 15 of the Experience Chart. In 2022 Tulane, TCU, Troy, and Tennessee ALL ranked in the Top 15 of the Experience Chart. TCU was picked 8th in the Big 12 but played in the National Title game! Tulane went from 2-10 to 12-2 and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl finishing a remarkable #9 AP. Tennessee went from 7-6 to 8-0 and was actually #1 in the first Playoff rankings and finished 11-2 and #6. Troy was off 3 straight losing seasons and went 12-2 and was #19! In 2023, Florida St was #2 on the Experience Chart and went undefeated in the regular season and won the ACC title. Michigan was #7 on the Experience Chart and went undefeated and won the national title! Missouri was #8 on the Experience Chart and was picked sixth in the SEC East but went 11-2 and beat Ohio State in the bowl and finished #8 AP. Last year Iowa St was #3 on the Exp Chart and was in the Big 12 title game and won their bowl. SMU despite going from a Group of Five league to the Power 4 was #7 on my Exp Chart and made the playoff and was in the ACC title game.
It was not just the last three years. Let me give you some of the other Top 15 teams and how they fared. In 2018 Oregon was unranked, they were #1 on my Exp Chart in 2019 and went 12-2 and finished #5 in the country. UAB was not even playing football in 2016 but in just their 2nd year back was #7 on the Experience Chart and went 11-3 in 2018. TCU was 6-7 in 2016 but was #3 on my Exp Chart and got to the Big 12 title game and finished 11-3 and #9 AP. Georgia was 8-5 in 2016 but was #8 on my Exp Chart in 2017 and won the SEC and made it to the National Title game before losing to Alabama.
Now let me look at some of the teams from the bottom of the Experience Chart. In 2022 Texas A&M was #124 on my Exp Chart and came into the season ranked in the Top 10. They finished just 5-7 and missed out on a bowl. Nevada was 8-5 in 2021 but was dead last in my Exp Chart last year and fell to 2-10. In 2018 Fresno St was 12-2 but was just #129 on my Exp Chart in 2019 and fell to 4-8. Stanford won an average of 10 games per year from 2015-’18 but was #118 on my Exp Chart in 2019 and went 4-8. Central Michigan was 8-5 in 2017 but was #124 on my Exp chart in 2018 and went just 1-11. Notre Dame was 10-3 in 2015 but was just #121 on my Exp Chart in 2016 and fell all the way to a rare losing season at 4-8. In 2023 some of the teams near the bottom were East Carolina which went from 8-5 to 2-10, Cincinnati which went from 9-4 to 3-9 and UAB which went from 7-6 to 3-9. Last year Troy was #133 and after two straight Sun Belt titles, missed out on a bowl with a losing record! Washington was #132 on the Exp Chart and after playing in the national title game in 2023 finished 6-7! Oregon St was #127 and New Mexico St was #125 and both went from solid big winning years to missing out on a bowl. Michigan was #117 and went from an undefeated national title season to a 7-5 regular season record.
This blog has me fired up to dig into the Experience Chart even more. Last year I did the research on the biggest changes each year of the Experience Chart. As an example, in ’23 Missouri went from being #100 on my Exp Chart all the way up to 8, a jump of 92 points and they went from 6-7 to 11-2! Also, TCU fell from #3 to #110 on my Exp Chart and they went from 13-2 to 5-7.
I will have a blog every day this summer and check out my twitter @philsteele042 to find out if I am on a radio show in your area this week.
If you want to know where your favorite team ranks on the Experience Chart check out page 5 of this year’s magazine. Remember the magazine is at every Barnes and Noble and most Books-A-Millions and they are our exclusive retailers this year. You can also buy the magazine from me direct by going to philsteele.com and when you purchase direct it costs more (shipping) but you this week you will get the digital magazine (updated thru September) Free with all magazines ordered on philsteele.com. CLICK HERE for the 2025 Magazine. The magazine is 360 pages and it is like getting 136 media guides rolled into one!
