Get my preseason lines on every game this year!
Last year I started something new for my Phil Steele Plus members and I am expanding it even more and making it bigger and better for the 2024 season.
Every year right after I finish the magazine at the start of June, I spend the next 4 weeks going thru all the games for the 2024 season. I plug my nine sets of power ratings into my computer and look at the projections. I then factor in the series history, situation (let down, look ahead), and look at the all the matchups like Offensive Line vs Defensive line, etc. I factor in the angles that apply to the games (how teams do as an Away Favorite, etc). I then have my preseason line on the game.
Up right now if you are a Phil Steele Plus member, you can my lines on every FBS vs FBS game for the 2024 season.
Here is a sample from last years’ schedule.
This chart will be updated all season long for FREE for all members of Phil Steele Plus. Keep in mind if you sign up for my Inside the Pressbox weekly newsletter you get Phil Steele Plus for free all season long. Here are the categories and what each column means.
The Vegas Line. These are the current lines on this weeks’ games and the final lines for all of the previous games during the year. This is updated every morning by Kevin to give you the latest lines and past games remain there all year with the final lines.
Scores and Schedule – We list the scores of each game and the team in BOLD is the team that covered that game against the spread. Kevin updates all the Times and TV stations each game is on and updates the lines on Monday, Wednesday and Friday and then updates the final Saturday numbers as well. After the games are over he bolds the spread winners and puts in the scores of the games. These remain up there all year so you can use as reference and to help fill in your magazine with scores and line.
Last met Line. These are complete. Basically, if a team was -10 at home last year and are now in the road the line would be -4 as you would take away the 3-point home edge from the previous meeting and add 3 to the now home team for a 6-point change. You can look at the line to see which team would be the choice of this category. If a block is in all Green it is at least 10 point away from current line and is a Best Bet. In the sample above there were 3 Best Bets. Since the team names are in black they one and this example does give up a very good example of how you have to do the math. Boise was -20 and only -4.5 so they qualified and won. Nevada was -20 using last year score (win on road, now at home) and the line was pick em. The Washington example is great. Washington was -13’ at home in 2022 and were now on the road. When you subtract the 3 point home edge then add the 3 to Stanford last year line would have been -7 at this site and it was -27.5. While the forecast says “Washington” note it only calls for them to win my 7 which is 20.5 points short of the line so the Best Bet is on STANFORD which only lost by 9 so it was a winner. The team names in Green mean that the Last Met Line Category’s pick covered. The teams in RED meant that the category lost its selection. Last year I included games that were last meeting if they did not meet in ’22 but this year the column will strictly be for games from last year.
Last met Score. A six-point difference. Example if you lost by 3 on the road last year and are now at home you would win by 3 at home with the home field edge shift. If a block is in all Green it is at least 10 point away from current line and is a Best Bet. In this example from October 28th last year this column had NINE best bets in this slice of game and went 8-1. A couple of examples are that Minnesota won by 27 at Mich St in 22 and now at home adding the 6 points (take away Mich St 3 pt home edge add Minn 3 point home edge) they would have won by 33 and they were only -6.5 so a Best Bet. USC only beat Cal by 6 at home in ’22 and with the 6 point switch it was a toss up game and Cal was +10 so a Best Bet and only lost by 1. Miami won by 2 in OT in ’22 vs Virginia but since it was OT I count that as a tie so with the home field switch the Score forecast had Miami -6 and they were -18.5. That was a Best Bet on Virginia and they covered as the game went to OT again. Last year I included games that were last meeting if they did not meet in ’22 but this year the column will strictly be for games from last year.
Plus Minus – I took my Plus Minus ratings on page 32 and added my home field edge from the home teams team page in the magazine to get to this number. The Plus Minus ratings change during the year. The future weeks have the opening plus minus and the current week has the current weeks rating. Any full GREEN block is a Best Bet but please note the line on the game. As an example last year on September 23 there is a Green block around COLORADO -12.3 vs Colorado St. Since the line was Colorado -23.5 that was a Best bet on COLORADO ST as it was 11.1 points short of the line of Colorado -23.5. Colorado won by 8 so COLORADO ST did indeed win. If the name remains in black after the week that means that the Best Bet won and if the team’s name is in red, the Best Bet lost. This gives you plays on almost every game with the Best Bets highlighted in Green. After the week was over the games that covered are in Green and the other in RED. In the small sample size above the Plus Minus games went 16-6 in these 22 game.
Last year the Plus Minus Best Bets went 45-34 during the season.
Average Game Grade – This is updated weekly with the difference between each teams Average Game Grade and the home field edge added in. Any full GREEN block is a Best Bet but please note the line on the game. As an example in 2022 on September 23 there is a Green block around Georgia -30.6 vs UAB. Since the line was Georgia -40 that was a Best bet on UAB as it was 10 points short of the line of Georgia -40. Georgia won by 28 so UAB did indeed win. If the name remains in black after the week that means that the Best Bet won and if the team’s name is in red, the Best Bet lost. In the example I list above the Best Bets went 4-0 with Cal and East Carolina covering as the forecast has both USC and UTSA short of the spread.
Last year the AFF Best Bets went 41-30 during the regular season.
Phil’s Preseason Line and Action Network Preseason Lines – This is my personal Preseason line on every FBS vs FBS game and Action Network Preseason lines. These were the lines that were made over the summer prior to the season. I left the lines up there for a couple of reasons. A) I wanted to see how much difference there was between the preseason lines and the current lines to get an idea of how much they change during the year. B) I wanted to see if there was any value either playing on or against the line moves. I started making any difference of 10 points or more a “Best Bet” and this way we can see where the value is. During the year the Action Network Best Bets of lines they made in the preseason did well at 31-20. Collin Wilson was kind enough to let me share his preseason lines once again! Also I have MY personal line of every game for the entire season posted in the current Schedule with Numbers chart and you can access them now if you are a Phil Steele Plus member.
Situation A/B/C – This category will break down each team’s situation. I will give each team an effort level of 1 to 5 depending what situation they are in. Each team has 15 points (3 points per week) for August 31 thru September, 12 points for the 4-week October and 12 points for the 4-week November. In October if a team uses a 5-effort level for one game they have just 7 points left for the other 4 games that month. This will help you discover when a team is playing its most important game of the month vs a team playing its third most important. If the number is a POSITIVE number that means the advantage belongs to the home team. If the number is a NEGATIVE number that means the advantage belongs to the ROAD team. Any edge of 1.5 or -1.5 or more is regarded as a Best Bet.
Last year the Situation Best Bets went a solid 64-48 in during the season.
FPI – I took the current FPI numbers and factored in my home field edge and this is that forecast for the week and once again factors in my home field edge and not FPI’s. I have listed the FPI for the entire season using my home field edges in the games but as the week hits I will switch them to the current FPI rating with my home field edge.
REVENGE – If a game has a REVENGE 3 then that is a best bet on the team that LOST last year as 90% of the time they were favored to win. Revenge does not apply to just any team that lost last year it has to deal with if they were favored or if it cost them something major or something happened in the game (team scoring a TD in final seconds when could have taken a knee). Revenge 2 or Revenge 1 are for teams that lost last year but were not favored. I do not list it on any game as an example Indiana lost to Ohio St last year but they were very much expected to so they are not playing with revenge.
Last year the REVENGE BEST BETS went a super 48-20 71%!!!!
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – This grades the current strength of schedule that each team has taken on this year. The Best Bet (GREEN) is on the team that is listed and it shows the edge. As an example, last year on September 30 Texas had an 86 edge over Kansas as Texas had taken on the #16 toughest schedule and Kansas came in at #102. After the week is over if the team is in Black they covered and if the team name is in RED they did not cover. Yellow is any number that is below a 40 difference and GREEN is above 40. The strength of schedule got better as the season went on as it finished 80-67 on the season including 36-22 the last 7 weeks of the regular season.
Last 4 Weeks AGG – At the start of the year I experimented with using the Last 4 weeks from the previous year and while the Best Bets were 3-1 the overall plays were 45-62. It took a few weeks off as the last 4 weeks was the AGG until after 4 weeks were played. I will list the last 4 weeks from last year for the first couple of weeks as the Last 4 weeks AGG cannot start until after week 5 and they get stronger as the season goes on. This shows CURRENT form vs teams as it only counts the last 4 weeks and after 8 games would be 50% of the games counted and the early 50% not counted. This is listed on the bottom of every team in Phil Steele Plus and had a GREAT year last year. Starting after week five these plays went 44-26 the last 4 weeks of the Regular Season!!!
Last Time Here Line and Score – This is an addition this year as it will show the line the Late Time here or if they did not meet last year, in their last meeting adjusted with the 6 points if necessary. I am interested to see how these plays do this year.
This Schedule with numbers is constantly updated during the week and right now you can get this years with advance lines on Marquee games from Vegas listed. You will get an idea of how many games a team will be favored in during the year. During the year you can use it as a great handicapping tool. Sometimes the categories will disagree but when the hot ones agree and maybe a game has two or three Best Bets on a side those plays should be very profitable. If you sign up to Phil Steele Plus today you will not only have access to the Schedule with Numbers but all my Team pages for the FBS, all my team pages to the FCS and all my Team pages for the NFL. It is just $99 for the entire season which is 7 months thru the Super Bowl which just $12.85 per month! CLICK HERE . If you sign up for any of my Inside the Pressbox Newsletters you get Phil Steele Plus for FREE.
Plus Members Find the Schedule Here. Login under my Account. Then under FBS Info Click on
As an example my College Inside the Pressbox is $20 per issue and I write up every FBS game including FBS vs FCS games and also give you my Computers Forecast on each game. I have my Best Bets each week and battle my Computer which puts out its Best Bets as well. For all 15 weeks it is a $300 value you can get the entire season right now for just $169 and as a bonus you get the entire year of Phil Steele Plus ($99 value) FREE. Click here to sign up.
