This year I am doing something for the first time. Every year once the magazine has been sent to the press, I start going over every game for the upcoming season. I look at the last 25 years matchups. Here is a sample of the last 25 years matchups available on Phil Steele Plus that is available for EVERY game for the 2023 season. Here you can see at a glance that the home team is 8-1 SU and ATS the last 9 meetings between Notre Dame and USC (see chart).
I look at my +/- Ratings (page 32 magazine) and the add in my home field edges and look at that number. I look at all the matchups like QB/WR for one team vs other teams DB’s, etc. I look at my computers projected score and yardage. I look at the situation like if a team is off a big game while the other is fresh off a bye (like the edge Tennessee has vs Texas A&M this year with A&M off Bama). I analyze everything and come up with my preseason line on the game or which team I would favor and by how much.
For years I have held these numbers close to my vest and not published them. This year for the first time I am releasing my preseason lines for every game for FREE to EVERY member of Phil Steele Plus. This includes my VIP magazine members who receive 4 months of Phil Steele Plus for FREE. These numbers are available right now on Phil Steele Plus. Here is a sample of what is available from November 11th.
Here is what each of the columns mean. This chart will be updated all season long for FREE for all members of Phil Steele Plus. Keep in mind if you sign up for my Inside the Pressbox weekly newsletter you get Phil Steele Plus for free all season long. Here are the categories.
The Vegas Line. These were summer lines released by at one casino in Vegas for the marquee games. These will be updated with the Current Vegas Lines all week long this year.
Last met Line. These are still being filled in for all the games but will be complete soon. Basically, if a team was -10 at home last year and are now in the road the line would be -4 as you would take away the 3-point home edge from the previous meeting and add 3 to the now home team for a 6 point change.
Last met Score. A six-point difference. Example if you lost by 3 on the road last year and are now at home you would win by 3 at home with the home field edge shift.
Plus Minus – I took my Plus Minus ratings on page 32 and added my home field edge from the home teams team page in the magazine to get to this number.
Average Game Grade – This is empty right now but once the season starts it will be updated weekly with the difference between each teams Average Game Grade and the home field edge added in.
Phil’s Preseason Line – This is my personal Preseason line on every FBS vs FBS game.
Situation A/B/C – This category will break down each team’s situation. I will give each team an effort level of 1 to 5 depending what situation they are in. Each team has 15 points (3 points per week) for September, 12 points for the 4-week October and 12 points for the 4 week November. In October if a team uses a 5 effort level for one game they have just 7 points left for the other 4 games that month. This will help you discover when a team is playing its most important game of the month vs a team playing its third most important.
Action Network – The fine folks over at Action Network have put their opening numbers on every game and listed them on their web site and these are their ratings.
FPI – I took the current FPI numbers and factored in my home field edge and this is that forecast as of the preseason.
I may add more columns during the year but if you are a current Phil Steele Plus member (and that includes you VIP members) just Login to Philsteele.com under my account then click on my memberships then go to Phil Steele Plus All Access. Under the FBS Info tab you will see “2023 Phil Steele’s Lines for all FBS vs FBS Games“.
Here is the menu and where to Click
There are two ways to become a Phil Steele Plus member. You can join Phil Steele Plus for the Football season and get the Team pages updated all season long for the FBS, FCS and NFL for just $99. CLICK HERE
Sign up for my Inside the Pressbox newsletter and get a complete writeup for every FBS vs FBS Game, FBS vs FCS game plus my top selections for each week PLUS my computers selections with Yards rushing and passing and points forecasts for each game (see sample below). CLICK HERE and when you sign up to Inside the Pressbox you get Phil Steele Plus for FREE. Here is a sample page from last year on Sept 24th Minnesota vs Michigan St.
