When I worked for ESPN full time, I put out a weekly article entitled the Vegas Power Ratings. I still have all the sources that I used to produce that article as it featured my plus/minus ratings which closely resemble Vegas’s numbers as well as three different casinos.

This is not the AP poll but gives you an idea of how much teams would be favored over another team if they met on a neutral field. I use these to get an idea of lines on upcoming games. Keep in mind just because a team beat someone last week does not mean they would be favored over them in the Vegas ratings. AP voters must vote that way, but Vegas does not. I will update these each week during the year as always.

In 2024 all the controversy is about Florida State being left out of the playoffs but if Vegas was picking the final four team’s they would have left them out as well. Florida State was #15 in the Vegas Power ratings prior to the bowl games! All season long I said Vegas does not care about record or who beat who it just establishes who it thinks is the stronger team and who would be favored against whom.

In 2025, Oregon and Georgia were #1 and #2 in the Playoff rankings and in the AP Poll heading into the playoffs. Vegas had Ohio State and Texas as the top two teams and Texas lost to Ohio St in the Buckeyes closest Playoff win while Oregon and Georgia both lost in their first playoff game. Yes, Vegas had Ohio State rated higher than Oregon even though the Buckeyes had lost to Oregon in the regular season and Oregon was the undefeated Big Ten champ!

Last year at the end of the regular season Notre Dame was #3 in the Vegas power ratings but got left out. If it was up to the Vegas Power Ratings Duke would have made the playoff (#40) over both James Madison (#46) and Tulane (#50) so only one Group of Five team would have made it.

If you are a voter in the AP poll week 3 this year you could not rank Ohio State ahead of Texas because Texas beat Ohio State. The Vegas Power ratings did. First of all, Texas started with a large edge, a home field and one of their best ever home crowds with the crowd noise helping the line of scrimmage and flow of the game. Ohio St took the lead just 2:51 into the game and led 20-3 at half with a 240-97-yard edge. For the game Ohio State on the road had a 372-336-yard edge for the game. They trailed the game for a grand total of :25. I could pick numerous plays which if one play was changed Ohio St would be a unanimous #1 in the polls after the game including their missed FG with 4:16 left which would have put them up 9. As it is they went on the road vs the now #1 team in the country and outgained them and led practically the whole game. If Ohio St and Texas met on a neutral field the followiing week, Ohio St would have been a slight favorite and that is the strength of the Vegas Power Ratings. LSU went into one of the most hostile settings and were favored over Ole Miss by 3 which means Vegas had them 6 to 8 points better. Now one game does not drastically alter their rankings. While AP voters had to list Ole Miss ahead of LSU the following week, the Vegas ratings said if the two teams met the following week at a neutral site LSU would have been favored by 4! Keep in mind in that hostile environment LSU had a chance to tie but missed a TD pass and was intercepted on the last play. People wondered why Florida is favored over Ole Miss? If you looked at the Vegas power ratings the two teams were nearly equal in the ratings, and the Gators were at home! It was no surprise to me that Florida was favored in that game. The week after Texas beat Ohio St,   Texas remained #1 in the AP poss but three teams ranked ahead of them in the Vegas ratings in Georgia, Ohio St and Notre Dame.

This week I was a little stunned but clearly I understand how it came out. I always tell you that Vegas does not overreact to last weeks games. They do however react to injuries. There were three teams at the top last week in Notre Dame, Georgia and Ohio St and since two of them lost I figured that Vegas would have Ohio St #1 this week. Go back up to the third paragraph. When Florida St lost their QB Vegas downgraded them to #15 despite their undefeated record. This week Vegas has dropped Ohio St to #7 without Julian Sayan a Heisman candidate and going to an unproven backup! Miami is #1 in the AP poll but Vegas says if they took on one loss Georgia they would be an underdog at a neutral site! Here is a fascinating week 8 of the Vegas Power Ratings!!!

Here is the week Eight edition of the 2026 Vegas Power Ratings!