I will be releasing the Hits and Misses of each team in each conference so you can see who faces the easiest and hardest schedule in each conference. I recently did a series looking back on my strength of schedule for each conference and in the Power 4 each schedule was a MAJOR force in the leagues overall finish. The Group of Five leagues last year did not have the same impact with more teams going from worst to first and vice versa from first to worst
The sixth conference I am looking at is the Sun Belt. This is the 2nd Group of Six league I am analyzing and most Group of Six league suffered heavy attrition. In the offseason these teams not only lose their Seniors but most of the all-conference players that have not graduated generally leave for greener pastures. Most Group Six coaches tell me that they now get better freshmen recruits as the P4 schools do not sign as many freshmen anymore but they realize once a player turns into a star he will be bought by a team with more money.
As you see the Sun Belt conference records add up to 464-432 so you think the math is incorrect. The league lost Texas St which was just 3-5 in Sun Belt play and they add in Louisiana Tech which was 5-3 in CUSA. While CUSA is not as strong a conference as the Sun Belt I did leave their record at 5-3 as they figure to be one of the upper teams in the Sun Belt according to my early power ratings. Therefore, if you take 8 games times 5 = 40 and 8×3 =24. That is a 16-game difference so it should have 16 more wins than the 448 and 16 less losses and that is correct as it adds up to 464-432.
I listed 5 teams in RED. JMU, Louisiana, Troy, Louis Tech and Marshall all come up at the top of my power ratings. The next level is Purple, and those teams are ODU, Ark St and App St. The next level is Blue and those two teams are Georgia Southern and South Alabama according to my early power ratings. The final level is GREEN which is Southern Miss, Coastal, ULM and Georgia St. You probably agree with the last two but the first two were both 5-3 last year however they lost their coaches and most of their key players as well.
The Sun Belt plays an eight-game schedule, so each league team has four home games and four away games, so I do not have an extra column added as there are no teams that have the advantage of an extra home game or a fewer road game.
Based strictly on last year’s records Marshall draws the most manageable schedule with their foes 29-35 last year in conference play. The toughest schedule based on that criterion goes to Southern Miss and Georgia St with their Sun Belt foes going 39-25 and 38-26 respectively in conference play last year. Now, things change after a year. Southern Miss was a transfer portal winner last year with new HC Charles Huff having more starters from the Sun Belt champ Marshall than Marshall had back last year! This year Huff is off to Memphis and took a bunch of players with him so they are back to being a weaker team like they were in 2024 when they were at the bottom of the Sun Belt.
Southern Miss draws the leagues toughest schedule. Four teams face 4 RED teams and all 4 play two PURPLE teams but SMiss and ULM each face just one GREEN team. Marshall draws just one RED team and two purple teams and get to face three GREEN teams so they draw my prespring EASIEST schedule nod. Ark St and Louisiana both face all 4 green teams.
Thank God there was just one portal window this year!! There will be plenty of new stars in the Sun Belt as most of last years are out the door.
This years magazine is 376 pages and the biggest and best ever. Here are the different ways you can order the magazine.
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