Big 12 Conference Hits and Misses – 2026

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be releasing the Hits and Misses of each team in each conference so you can see who faces the easiest and hardest schedule in each conference. I recently did a series looking back on my strength of schedule for each conference and in the Power 4 each schedule was a MAJOR force in the leagues overall finish. The Group of Five leagues last year did not have the same impact with more teams going from worst to first and vice versa from first to worst.

            The fourth conference I am looking at is the Big 12. Now in 2024 it was the upside-down conference as all the teams projected to finish at the top, finished at the bottom and vice versa. Last year there was some shifting as after Iowa St and Arizona St had played for the Big 12 title in 2024, they combined to go just 11-7 last year. I had Baylor at the top with an explosive offense and a Dave Aranda defense but the defense disappointed and they were just 3-6. The surprise bottom team was Arizona which I had in GREEN and they went 6-3. Two teams that faced the #4 and #5 easiest schedules met in the Big 12 title game in Texas Tech vs BYU.

            I have all last year’s records for this year opponents listed, and they add up to 648-648 so the math is correct. There are no new members so it balances.

            The Big 12 has playa a nine-game schedule for a while and that means half the teams get five Big 12 home games and play just four on the road and half the teams play five Big 12 road games with just four at home. It alternates each year. This year’s Lucky 8 teams are West Virginia, Arizona, Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa St, UCF, Colorado and BYU. Of the 5 teams I put in RED (top teams) only Houston and Utah draw five road games in the Big 12. Arizona St and Kansas face each other in London.  Last year when I talked to both Matt Campbell of Iowa St and Chris Kleiman of Kansas St both were concerned with preparing for a trip to Ireland. They noted what happened to Florida St and Georgia Tech the previous year and the toll their trip to Ireland took as FSU went from 12-0 to 2-10 and Georgia Tech in 2024 started got that win in Ireland and was ranked but went just 7-6. Kansas St and Iowa St were both expected to contend in the Big 12 but both finished just 5-4 in a five-way tie for seventh place. I put those two in RED in that column as each have just 4 home games and 5 away from home and must deal with the travel. The other teams with just 4 Big 12 home games are Cincinnati, Utah, Kansas St, Baylor, Houston and Oklahoma St.  The team that really got a raw deal was Kansas. Not only do they have to deal with a trip to London to play Ariz St they have FIVE Big 12 road games on top of that so only have 3 Big 12 home games!

            Based strictly on last year’s records Houston draws the most manageable schedule with their foes 33-48 last year in Big 12 play. The toughest schedule based on that criterion goes to Arizona with their Big 12 foes going 51-30 in conference play last year. Now, things change after a year. Oklahoma St was 0-9 last year but bring in North Texas’s QB, RB and top WR from last years potent offense. West Virginia was just 2-7 despite a large number of injuries and Rich Rod did a solid job getting them to 2 wins. Both of those teams had a massive number of transfers that came in POST spring and this year there are ZERO post spring transfers. Iowa St was a contender last year but lost coach Campbell and 53 transfers plus some seniors with 20+ players joining Campbell at Penn St. They are the only team I list in GREEN.

            Cincinnati draws the leagues toughest schedule as they are the only team to face all five RED teams. There are five teams that must face three RED teams and they are West Virginia, Utah, TCU, Baylor and Arizona St. I list 5 teams in PURPLE in TCU, Arizona St and one that will surprise you in Oklahoma St. The next level (BLUE) teams are Cincinnati, Kansas, UCF, Kansas St, West Virginia, Baylor and Colorado. The only GREEN team is Iowa St which lost half their team and of course their head coach. There are six teams in the league that only draw only two of the RED teams. If you look at the teams, I have listed at the bottom Houston draws the easiest schedule with just two red teams, but they do have 5 Big 12 away. Their foes were just 33-48 in league play last year. Texas Tech is close. Of the 5 red teams Houston, BYU and Texas Tech all rank in the bottom 4 so have a great shot at getting to the title game.

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