When I worked for ESPN full time, I put out a weekly article entitled the Vegas Power Ratings. I still have all the sources that I used to produce that article as it featured my plus/minus ratings which closely resemble Vegas’s numbers as well as three different casinos including the fine folks over at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook @SuperBookSports.
This is not the AP poll but gives you an idea of how much teams would be favored over another team if they met on a neutral field. I use these to get an idea of lines on upcoming games. Keep in mind just because a team beat someone last week does not mean they would be favored over them in the Vegas ratings. AP voters must vote that way, but Vegas does not. I will update these each week during the year as always.
In 2024 all the controversy is about Florida State being left out of the playoffs but if Vegas was picking the final four team’s they would have left them out as well. Florida State was #15 in the Vegas Power ratings prior to the bowl games! All season long I said Vegas does not care about record or who beat who it just establishes who it thinks is the stronger team and who would be favored against whom.
Last year Oregon and Georgia were #1 and #2 in the Playoff rankings and in the AP Poll heading into the playoffs. Vegas had Ohio State and Texas as the top two teams and Texas lost to Ohio St in the Buckeyes closest Playoff win while Oregon and Georgia both lost in their first playoff game. Yes, Vegas had Ohio State rated higher than Oregon even though the Buckeyes had lost to Oregon in the regular season and Oregon was the undefeated Big Ten champ!
There have been some upsets and ranked teams beating ranked teams. Vegas does not overreact. If you look at the rankings Alabama dropped to #19 in the AP poll but in Vegas, they were still #4! How does that look now? Notre Dame lost to Texas A&M and was 1-2 while Texas A&M was 4-0. Any AP voter HAD TO put A&M above ND but in Vegas if the two were to meet on a neutral field, ND would have been favored the next week and still today
It is interesting to see Oregon and Indiana basically tied in the power ratings despite the fact Indiana won by 10 at Oregon just two weeks ago. Notre Dame despite two losses is #4 ahead of undefeated Texas A&M,. That is the way Vegas operates, and they don’t build those big casino’s because Vegas puts out poor numbers.
These rankings differ from the AP but show you who would be favored in upcoming matchups.
Here is the week ten edition of the 2025 Vegas Power Ratings!
