Last year Oklahoma St was not the second-best team in the Big 12 but had the best schedule and they landed in the Big 12 title game. With the Power Four conferences going to as many as 18 team leagues, who you play and who you miss is even more important.
Today we look at the Big 12 conference. The Big Twelve plays a 9 game schedule which means some teams have five home games and four conference road games while the other half has only four home games and five Big Twelve road games. Arizona, UCF, Texas Tech, Iowa St, TCU, BYU, Colorado and West Virginia.
The next category to look at is conference records from last year. Luckily both the Pac 12 and Big 12 played 9 conference games so the numbers were even for the leagues and each teams foes added up to 81 games. Normally when I do this, I can add up the wins and the losses and they should equal. The totals add up to 567-729 43.8% so you may think I did the math wrong but keep in mind the Big Twelve lost Texas and Oklahoma which were 8-1 and 7-2 in league play. The four Pac 12 teams brought over had records of 7-2, 5-4, 2-7 and 1-8 so a combined 15-21! I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that the Big Ten all faced teams with winning conference records and I expected the opposite for the Big 12.
In this category West Virginia faces the toughest schedule at 42-39 for their opponents conference records with only two other teams facing foes that combined for over 50% in Colorado and Arizona St whose foes were 41-40 in league play last year. At the opposite end of the spectrum, four teams faced foes that combined for under 40% conference wins last year. Those four fortunate teams are Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Kansas and the big winner Arizona whose foes this year combined for a conference record of 29-52 last year or 35.8%.
The above category has some flaws. For example, in the Big Ten Washington last year was 9-0 and in the national title game. This year due to the coaching change and graduation have just a shell of the team returning and lose their head coach.
I have the chart color coded. Now, you may disagree with my ratings, but I have all my preliminary numbers done as the portal is closed and almost all good players have signed that were out there. I have put the teams in three colors.
The top level of teams are the super powers. I list those teams in RED for you do not want to play them. That top level category in no particular order is Oklahoma St, Arizona, Iowa St, Utah and Kansas St.
The next level is in Blue and they are teams that look like bowl teams or bowl caliber teams for this year.
The bottom level is Green for teams that you want to draw. In my preliminary rankings right now the bottom 3 teams in the Big 12 are BYU, Arizona St and Houston and those teams are in Green.
Five teams draw 4 of the top 5 teams and they are West Virginia, Colorado, Arizona St, BYU and Houston. Four teams draw all 3 green teams and they are Arizona, Kansas, Kansas St and Utah. Look at Arizona’s schedule as they are the only team in the Big 12 that faces just one of the top level teams. Only two teams do not play any GREEN teams and they are the two teams that face the toughest schedules in the Big 12 in West Virginia and Colorado.
Here is the chart and here is how I grade this year’s CONFERENCE schedules, keep in mind non-conference games are not included in this strength of schedule.
Remember I have a new daily blog each and every day this year so stop back to philsteele.com and check it out each day. Also did you know the digital magazine is updated all the way thru the start of the football season. We circle players that are out for the year, add in any new transfers and update position outlooks for each team. If you want to get the digital magazine along with your hard copy you can purchase it here on PhilSteele.com.
