In my July 8th blog I detailed how happy I was with the results of the Experience Chart when used as a predictor for the upcoming season. Basically 70% of the Top 15 on the Experience Chart had an improved or the same record and 66% of the top 31. The results at the bottom of the chart were even stronger with 74% of the bottom 15 teams on the Experience Chart having a weaker or the same record the next year. Teams rated #90 or lower on the Experience Chart had a weaker or the same record 71% of the time!!!
I mentioned that I thought if you compared the chart to the previous year and looked for teams that made the biggest leaps or had the biggest declines in Experience that the numbers would be even stronger. I am pleased to report that yes, indeed the numbers were even better than I expected!!
Here is how I determined the numbers. I took where a team ranked the previous year in the Experience Chart. Let me give you an Example. In 2017 Georgia Southern was #127 on my Experience Chart and finished a poor 2-10. In 2018 It was a much more veteran Eagles squad that was #2 on my Experience Chart which was an improvement of 125 spots! Georgia Southern improved all the way to 10-3 in 2018! At the opposite end of the spectrum, we can take a look at the 2022 Nevada squad. In 2021 I was high on the Wolfpack, and they were #4 on my Exp Chart and went 8-5. In 2023 they were wiped out with defections and fell 125 spots to #129 on my Experience Chart and I had them picked much lower than most. Nevada went just 2-10.
Just like I did for the Experience Chart I ignored the 2020 and 2021 seasons as 2020 was an abnormal season with delays, reschedules and mismatched games due to Covid testing which had some teams down one third their players. In 2021 almost every team had everyone back and how do you compare records with 2020 when some teams played 4, 6 or even 0 games.
Last year the chart was solid once again. On the Going up side Missouri improved 92 spots to #8 on my Experience Chart and not only had their first winning season in 5 years they ironically finished #8 in the AP poll at 11-2. At the other end of the spectrum East Carolina was #121 on my Exp Chart which was a drop of 103 spots after being #18 in 2022. The Pirates went from a solid winning year to just 2-10!
The first chart I will look at is now teams from 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023fared when they were much more experienced than the previous year. The example I mentioned above with Georgia Southern was the team that had the biggest difference. Example if a team was #100 in the Experience Chart the previous year and #50 this year they are 50 spots more experienced. Let me give you a few more Examples of teams that were much more experienced from one year to the next and how they fared. In 2016 Fresno was #110 on my Exp Chart but in 2017 Fresno improved to #25. That was a jump of 85 spots and their record went from 1-11 to 10-4! In 2013 Air Force was #93 on my Exp Chart and went 2-10 but in 2014 they jumped 70 spots to #23 on the Exp Chart and the record improved to 10-3! Florida Atlantic was #1 on my Exp Chart in 2017 (+67 spots) and their record improved from 3-9 in 2016 to 11-3!
Here is the chart for teams that were more experienced.
Teams that improved from .5 to 54 spots higher in the Experience Chart improved overall. There were 410 teams in that area and 194 improved their record while 155 had a weaker record which is 56% and 61 teams had the same record. As the chart shows above teams that are 55 spots more Experienced, or more than the previous year happened 224 times. Teams Improved their record 146 times with a weaker record only 54 times and the same record 24 times which is a success rate of 76% of teams having either a stronger or the same record! I will list the top of this year’s list below.
This second chart is how teams fared that were less experienced than the previous year. I listed the top example above, but this breaks down how each team fared in the different categories. This is the opposite of the above chart. If a team was #50 on my Experienced Chart the previous year and is now #100, they are 50 sports less experienced. In 2015 Michigan St was #34 on my Exp Chart and went 12-2 the next year they dropped to #117 on my Exp Chart a drop of 83 spots and fell to 3-9. Fresno St was 12-2 in 2018 when they were #24 on my Exp Chart but in 2019 fell all the way to #129, a drop of 105 spots and their record fell to 4-8. In 2021 Louisiana was #5 on my Exp Chart and had a remarkable year at 13-1 and were #16 AP. In 2023 they dropped to #97 a drop of 92 spots and were just 6-7.
Here is this year’s chart.
The results were similar in the opposite direction. As you would expect teams that were from 1 to 55 spots less experienced did indeed have a weaker record a majority of the time with 205 teams getting weaker and 143 teams having a stronger record. Good but that is only 59% with 46 teams having the same record. Once teams get beyond that 55 number the teams that have a weaker record really intensifies. Teams with over 55 points less experienced have a weaker record 152 times, a stronger record 61 times and the same record 24 times which is a 74.3% success rates of having a weaker or the same record!
Now let’s take a look at some of this year’s top teams for these charts. Last year there were only two teams that improved their Experience by 100 spots or more and both had better records last year in Texas A&M and Wyoming. As you know the going up boxes in the magazine for all the Metrics articles have had Great success topping 80% the last 5 years! Here is the GOING UP BOX for More Experienced teams in 2024. (Todd make boxes)
Here is this year GOING UP box
At the other end of the chart there last year there were five teams that topped a move of 100 spots weaker on the Experience Chart and are likely headed for a weaker year. Those five teams were Old Dominion (-110 spots), UAB (-104), East Carolina (-103), TCU (-101) and Stanford (-101). Four of the Five teams had a weaker record with Old Dominion the outlier. TCU went from playing in the National title game to a losing record!
Here is this year GOING DOWN box
Remember this year the magazine is EXCLUSIVELY sold at Barnes and Noble and Books-A-Million and will not be sold at any other retail spot. You can also buy the magazine direct here on the website (CLICK HERE) and when you buy direct you not only get the physical copy mailed out but you will also get the digital magazine ($19 value) FREE. Here is a link to the store.
Make sure you check out my Daily blog each and every day for the next two months.
