In the start of March and the MAC finally put out their 2025 schedule on March 5th so all the teams have their schedules complete for 2025. I would like to thank FBSSchedules.com for having the matchups. I also would like to thank Ken Willinger who proofs the schedules and records for me every year. He does a meticulous and quite accurate job. All schools have a full 12 game schedule.
Now that all have been released the debate over which team plays the toughest schedule can begin.
There are many ways to calculate schedule strength. The most used method is to combine opponents’ records from the previous season. Using this metric the toughest 2025 schedule belongs to Arkansas, whose opponents won 66.7% of their games in 2024. Kentucky (65.0%) comes in at #2 and Wisconsin (64.8%) is number three. You can see by using this measurement Northern Illinois (39.3%), Jax St (41.5%) and San Jose St (42.1%) have the easiest schedules for 2025 based on using 2024’s final records for opponent strength.
I want to remind you that this is the NCAA’s method, not mine. My schedule strength is based on my 9 sets of power ratings for THIS years’ teams and not last years. Prior to 2019, the method used for this article said that Arizona St was facing the 113th most challenging schedule (17th easiest) as their opponents won only 45.3% of their games in 2018. I had Arizona St 64 spots higher in my strength of schedule rankings in the magazine and 7 of 12 of their opponents went on to play in bowl games, they faced four ranked teams and ended up taking on the 44th toughest schedule. It is clear that there were not 112 schedules tougher than Arizona State’s. In last year’s magazine I pointed out that Kansas had on of the most underrated schedules in the country. They ranked just #125 in opponents win % which was the 10th easiest schedule. I had them rated taking on a schedule 66 spots tougher. When the dust cleared Kansas took on 10 bowl teams last year with 10 of their foes P4 teams and Kansas one of the preseason favorites in the Big 12 did not make a bowl.
In an upcoming blog I will break down what each team’s schedule strength was using last year’s records vs the actual schedule of teams they faced that year.
There are other ways to measure schedule strength. Who plays the most teams that had a winning record last year? Well, that method came up with four teams at the top. #1 on that list are Kentucky, Miss St, Syracuse and LSU which each play 10 teams that had winning records in 2024. There are five teams that face 9 teams that had a winning record last year in Arkansas, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Auburn and Notre Dame. At the opposite end of the spectrum San Jose St faces just two teams that had a winning record last year and Michigan, Texas Tech and Northern Illinois face just three teams that had a winning record last year.
Another way to measure schedule strength is to see how many opponents made the post season the previous year. Two teams draw ELEVEN opponents that qualified for the postseason last year and they are Syracuse and LSU. Seven teams face TEN opponents that qualified for the postseason last year and they are Miss St, Wisconsin, Auburn, Notre Dame, TCU, South Carolina and Louisville. The teams at the other end are San Jose St which faces just 3 teams that were in bowls.
Another way to look at schedule strength would be how many opponents that finished in the Top 25 the previous year does a team face? In 2021 Florida St, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Purdue, Kansas, and Baylor all led the way with five games vs teams that finished in the Top 25 in 2020 and only ONE of the six teams managed to have a winning record in 2021 (Baylor)! In 2022 six teams faced five teams that finished 2021 ranked. Those six teams were Mississippi State, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, BYU, and Louisville. Those six, fared better with 5 making it to a bowl. In ‘23 there were six teams who faced SIX teams that that finished ranked in 2022. Those six teams with rugged schedules were Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Florida and Stanford. Arizona had great success and Cal managed to get to a bowl but the other 4 teams all missed out on a bowl. Last year 4 teams faced 6 teams that finished 2024 ranked and those four teams were Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Oklahoma had a losing season but the other 3 teams all managed to get to a bowl with South Carolina finishing ranked. This year three teams face six teams that finished ranked last year and they are Miss St, Arkansas and Oklahoma. The Hogs and Sooners did not get many breaks the first two years of this new 16 team SEC schedule!
Interestingly there are 22 teams that do not face a single foe that finished ranked last year including James Madison which is #44 using the method of opponent’s records for 2024.
I will have MY final schedule strength for 2025 in this year’s magazine. I send the last page of the magazine to the press on June 6th this year and it should hit the newsstands by July 4th.
Last year the VIP deal worked out tremendously well. All VIP members had access to the magazine two days after we sent it to the press, and they had EXCLUSIVE ACCESS to the digital magazine for two full weeks. The magazines were shipped priority mail to them as they rolled off the press and VIP members had the actual magazine in their hands about 3 weeks before it went on sale at Barnes and Noble. All VIP members received FOUR Free Issues of Inside the Pressbox and those 4 issues combined to go 16-9 on the Best Bets released over those 4 weeks for a very profitable bonus! Last year I added a Super VIP in which you get two magazines, and for the Super VIP’s, I gave away the full year of Phil Steele Plus access ($99 value) all for just $69 including shipping. Here is a link and we do send out the magazines on the FIFO method of First In (first ordered) First Out (first shipped). So right now, if you order your magazine will be shipped on the first day but that window is closing fast. Also, I may change my mind on giving away a full year of Phil Steele Plus with the Super VIP order but it is available at least thru March.
Click Here to order the VIP Bundle.
Here is the complete list of all 136 FBS teams (including Delaware and Missouri St) with their cumulative record for each opponent they face this year, the total amount of ranked teams, bowl teams, and teams with a winning record.
