When I worked for ESPN full time, I put out a weekly article entitled the Vegas Power Ratings. I still have all the sources that I used to produce that article as it featured my plus/minus ratings which closely resemble Vegas’s numbers as well as three different casinos including the fine folks over at the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook @SuperBookSports. We are now eleven full weeks into the season and I will continue to post these numbers weekly.
This is NOT the AP poll but gives you an idea of how much teams would be favored over another team if they met on a neutral field. I use these to get an idea of lines on upcoming games and it is very accurate in that respect.
Let me give you some clear examples of how these ratings differ from any poll you will see.
Now, Let’s take a look at some teams that beat other teams this year. You will notice this week that Ohio State is rated #3 and Oregon is #10. You will say, but Oregon beat Ohio State on the road by a TD and both teams have the same record so how can Ohio State be rated higher? This is not an AP ranking and perhaps head to head an AP voter would have to vote Oregon. If Ohio State played Oregon again this week at a neutral site the Buckeyes who were favored by 15 at home would be favored by 13.2 at a neutral site this week. Bowling Green beat Minnesota on the road but if they played this week at a neutral site Minnesota would be favored by 24.3. This is not who has played the toughest schedule, who passes the eye test or who deserves to be rated higher than another team based on play on the field. Michigan St is ranked #7 and Ohio State is #5 so you figure with those rankings Ohio St would only be a TD favorite this week. Check te Vegas Power Ratings, Ohio St is rated 15.8 pts higher and I have a home edge in the magazine of 5.5 so Ohio St should be favored by around 3 TD and they are. By the way for all of the natiaon media that is screaming about Michigan being ranked ahead of Michigan St in the rankings. The committee uses head to head when teams are close. The Vegas power ratings would favor Michgan by 7.8 on a neutral field if they played again this week. These power ratings are which teams would be favored over other teams and by how much and the folks in Vegas are pretty-smart as they have some pretty impressive casinos out there and it is not from losing money.
Here is this year’s 10th edition of my Vegas Power Ranking for the 2021 season!