NFL Close Wins, Close Losses

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Much like a stock broker, our job is to find value. As with every article, the trends we’ve discovered in college football translate well to the NFL and it is no different when a professional team is coming off a season with multiple net close wins or net close losses.

We use a touchdown or less as a base for our calculation of a “close” win or loss, because if a team won or lost by a touchdown or less, they were usually just one play away from a different outcome. There are instances in which a game would be added or deleted. An example is if a team trailed by 13 points and scored a td on the final play, they were never within “one play” of winning. We also use the term “net” close games, which takes the close wins minus the close losses for a final “net” number. As an example, last year the Houston Texans had 2 close wins and 7 close losses finishing with -5 “net” close games. Conversely, the Pittsburgh Steelers had 7 close wins and 2 close losses finishing with +5 “net” close games.

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