Much like a stock broker, my job is to find value. As with every article, the trends I’ve discovered in college football translate well to the NFL and it is no different when a professional team is coming off a season with multiple net close wins or net close losses.
We use a touchdown or less as a base for our calculation of a “close” win or loss, because if a team won or lost by a touchdown or less, they were usually just one play away from a different outcome. There are instances in which a game would be added or deleted. An example is if a team trailed by 13 points and scored a td on the final play, they were never within “one play” of winning. We also use the term “net” close games, which takes the close wins minus the close losses for a final “net” number. As an example, last year the Detroit Lions had 3 close wins and 7 close losses finishing with -4 “net” close games. Conversely, the Houston Texans had 8 close wins and 3 close losses finishing with +5 “net” close games.