Much like a stock broker, my job is to find value. As with every article, the trends I’ve discovered in college football translate well to the NFL and it is no different when a professional team is coming off a season with multiple net close wins or net close losses.
***Dont forget that the 2018 Pro Football Preview is available right now to order from the online store. We will be shipping the Pro Magazine out this week. You can also get the digital version of the Pro Magazine. Phil Steele’s Digital Magazine Page.
I use a touchdown or less as a base for my calculation of a “close” win or loss, because if a team won or lost by a touchdown or less, they were usually just one play away from a different outcome. There are instances in which a game would be added or deleted. An example is if a team trailed by 13 points and scored a td on the final play, they were never within “one play” of winning. I also use the term “net” close games, which takes the close wins minus the close losses for a final “net” number. As an example, last year the Arizona Cardinals had 2 close wins and 5 close losses finishing with -3 “net” close games. Conversely, the Miami Dolphins had 8 close wins and 2 close losses finishing with +6 “net” close games.