Spring Blog • June 17, 2015 Blog Archives

2015 YPP Factor

Offensive YPP

Twelve years ago I did an article on YPP and every year there are some solid charts for you to review. First of all, let's explain what YPP is exactly. A YPP is simply yards per point. An offense is more efficient when their YPP is a lower number like in golf. If a team had an offensive YPP of 10.0, that would mean for every 200 yards they gained, they scored 20 points. Meanwhile, if they had an offensive YPP of 20.0, then for every 200 yards they gained, they only scored 10 points. On the other side of the ball, defenses want to have a higher YPP. Inverting the same thought, if a team allowed 200 yards and had a 20.0 YPP, that means they would allow just 10 points for every 200 yards the opposition traveled, whereas a 10.0 YPP would be 20 points for every 200 yards allowed. When I started this research in 1990, the average YPP for a team was 15.44 and the median was 15.49. It surprises me how much the median has dropped inside this decade.

Last year the avg was just 13.99 and the median was 13.90. I found teams that have a high offensive YPP (move the ball but do not score) the previous year generally have a stronger record the next season. Let's look at teams that had an unusually high YPP the previous year (an inefficient offense). If you look at the chart below you will see that 31 teams have had a YPP greater than 22.4 since 1990 and ALL 31 have had a stronger or identical record the next year. Last year THREE teams fit that criteria and all 3 improved (UMass, Miami-Oh, FIU). This year only one team fits that billing (SMU). The chart goes to 17.70, which still has a solid success record, as teams will either have the same or a stronger record 76.6% of the time. Last year 13 teams were off years with Off  YPP's of 18.4 or higher & went 12-0-1 improving their record!!

Teams that had an extremely low YPP the previous year usually have a weaker record the next season. The statistics are not as dominant as the high YPP, usually because there are some teams that benefit from turnovers on a yearly basis, keeping their YPP low. Still, according to the chart teams whose YPP were less than 11.50 the previous year had either a weaker or the same record 72.7% of the time the next year. There are a lot of teams that fit into the category of under 13.59. Looking at the history of the offensive YPP, these teams have a 67.5% chance of a weaker or same record this season.

2014 Offensive YPP

 Team 2014 Offensive YPP How they Will Fare in 2015 Louisiana Tech 10.73 Georgia 11.08 Teams who have a 72.7% chance of Ohio St 11.42 having a weaker or same record in 2015 TCU 11.47 Michigan St 11.65 Kansas St 11.79 Memphis 11.79 Nebraska 11.98 Arizona St 11.98 North Texas 12.00 Maryland 12.02 Westen Kentucky 12.05 Oregon 12.05 Baylor 12.06 Florida 12.15 Marshall 12.27 Duke 12.30 Utah 12.40 BYU 12.42 Boise St 12.45 Georgia St 12.49 Georgia Tech 12.59 Minnesota 12.59 Louisville 12.67 Arkansas 12.72 Florida Intl 12.75 USC 12.76 Oklahoma 12.77 Tennessee 12.81 Washington 12.86 Texas A&M 12.93 N Carolina 12.93 Appalachian St 12.94 California 12.95 UCF 12.95 W Michigan 12.97 Arkansas St 12.99 UAB 13.02 Florida St 13.09 Alabama 13.12 Navy 13.17 UTEP 13.18 Kentucky 13.18 Missouri 13.21 Clemson 13.24 Air Force 13.31 Ball St 13.35 Temple 13.36 Toledo 13.40 Arizona 13.44 Old Dominion 13.53 Cincinnati 13.53 Notre Dame 13.55 N Carolina St 13.55 Wisconsin 13.56 Teams who have a 67.5% chance of S Carolina 13.57 having a weaker or same record in 2015 Buffalo 13.58 Nevada 13.64 Middle Tenn St 13.66 Pittsburgh 13.67 Auburn 13.68 Oklahoma St 13.72 Texas St 13.73 Rice 13.88 Houston 13.91 Mississippi St 13.91 UCLA 13.98 N Illinois 14.01 LSU 14.03 Utah St 14.07 Illinois 14.17 UL-Lafayette 14.17 Iowa 14.17 Colorado St 14.18 Stanford 14.31 Army 14.40 Bowling Green 14.43 New Mexico 14.44 Purdue 14.46 Virginia 14.48 Wake Forest 14.58 Rutgers 14.61 Boston College 14.64 Miami (Fla) 14.72 C Michigan 14.79 Mississippi 14.80 E Carolina 14.87 W Virginia 14.94 Florida ATL 15.13 Virginia Tech 15.17 Fresno St 15.32 Oregon St 15.33 Northwestern 15.35 Umass 15.41 Colorado 15.41 Texas 15.77 San  Diego St 15.78 Michigan 15.92 Iowa St 16.08 Indiana 16.15 Washington St 16.26 Penn St 16.26 TexasTech 16.53 Akron 16.53 Georgia Southern 16.56 Troy St 16.64 South Alabama 16.68 Idaho 16.70 Tulsa 16.72 Vanderbilt 16.80 Miami (OH) 16.81 New Mexico St 17.18 UL Monroe 17.40 UTSA 17.41 Teams who have a 76.6% chance of Hawaii 17.42 having a stronger or same record in 2015 UNLV 17.67 South Florida 17.75 Connecticut 17.82 Ohio Univ 18.06 Wyoming 18.07 Kansas 18.17 E Michigan 19.09 S Mississippi 19.21 Kent St 19.28 Syracuse 19.31 San Jose St 20.46 Tulane 21.67 Teams who have a 100% chance of SMU 24.27 having a stronger or same record in 2015

Defensive YPP

Now let's take a look at the teams under the Defensive YPP that were not so fortunate last year. As the chart below shows, if a team allows a defensive YPP of 11.27 or lower, (meaning they gave up a lot of points but not a lot of yds), their record improves or is the same the next year 75.0% of the time. Last year Southern Miss with their 10.39 Def YPP is the lowest since Eastern Michigan in 2010 (10.34). In 2011 The Eagles went 6-6 improving from a 2-10 record. Overall, teams that have a 13.29 defensive YPP or lower since 1990 have either had a stronger or same record 72.4% of the time.

Teams that allowed a lot of yards but not a lot of points are generally considered bend but don't break D's. However teams whose Def YPP was 17.71 or greater have a weaker or the same record the following year 66.5% of the time. Since 1990 only 35 teams have had a Def  YPP over 22.45 incl both participants in the 2012 Nat'l Championship. Notre Dame (23.92) and Alabama (22.88) combined for a 25-2 record with those incredible YPP's but LY while still very respectable the combined record fell to 20-6. It should be noted that Bama had a streak of 4 straight years being among the 4 best Def YPP broken last year as they were only 10th best. Ole Miss had the best Def YPP at 20.59.

2014 Defensive YPP

 Team 2014 Offensive YPP How they will Fare in 2015 Mississippi 20.56 Temple 19.83 Mississippi St 19.56 Duke 18.36 Oregon 18.21 LSU 18.07 Utah St 18.06 TCU 17.99 Memphis 17.96 Teams who have a 66.5% chance of Alabama 17.82 having a weaker or same record in 2015 Stanford 17.23 Virginia Tech 17.06 Marshall 17.00 Colorado St 16.95 Arkansas 16.82 San  Diego St 16.75 Houston 16.66 Georgia St 16.57 Washington 16.57 Missouri 16.44 Nevada 16.42 Air Force 16.34 Georgia 16.30 USC 16.22 Cincinnati 16.12 Texas St 16.12 Akron 16.08 Texas A&M 16.05 Georgia Tech 15.99 Arizona 15.98 Kansas St 15.95 Ohio Univ 15.88 Utah 15.79 Ball St 15.79 Florida 15.64 Clemson 15.62 UL-Lafayette 15.61 UCF 15.59 Hawaii 15.58 Ohio St 15.56 Florida St 15.52 N Illinois 15.27 Northwestern 15.27 Minnesota 15.24 Boston College 15.22 South Alabama 15.12 Tennessee 15.05 Penn St 14.97 Baylor 14.95 Auburn 14.94 Arizona St 14.94 South Florida 14.93 W Michigan 14.89 Kent St 14.84 Navy 14.79 Oklahoma 14.76 Bowling Green 14.73 Rutgers 14.68 Louisiana Tech 14.67 Virginia 14.66 Michigan St 14.66 Florida Intl 14.65 Texas 14.62 Nebraska 14.54 Maryland 14.47 W Virginia 14.46 New Mexico 14.44 Middle Tenn St 14.36 Syracuse 14.35 UTSA 14.26 S Carolina 14.24 UL Monroe 14.22 BYU 14.22 E Carolina 14.21 UCLA 14.19 Louisville 14.17 Wisconsin 14.15 C Michigan 14.13 Fresno St 14.06 Boise St 14.02 Wake Forest 13.98 Michigan 13.89 Notre Dame 13.86 Oklahoma St 13.83 Arkansas St 13.83 N Carolina St 13.82 Pittsburgh 13.68 Tulane 13.65 Miami (OH) 13.64 Kansas 13.63 Iowa St 13.62 UAB 13.57 Umass 13.56 Miami (Fla) 13.56 Rice 13.56 Iowa 13.44 Illinois 13.42 Toledo 13.39 Florida ATL 13.39 UNLV 13.35 Indiana 13.21 Purdue 13.14 Teams who have a 72.4% chance of Wyoming 13.12 having a stronger or same record in 2015 UTEP 13.11 Army 13.09 Kentucky 13.02 California 12.87 Oregon St 12.86 Westen Kentucky 12.77 N Carolina 12.77 S Mississippi 12.75 Appalachian St 12.71 Connecticut 12.69 Buffalo 12.61 Troy St 12.55 TexasTech 12.45 Idaho 12.41 Tulsa 12.40 New Mexico St 12.39 North Texas 12.38 E Michigan 12.19 San Jose St 12.14 Vanderbilt 12.09 SMU 12.08 Old Dominion 11.90 Colorado 11.82 Georgia Southern 11.47 Washington St 11.46

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