|Spring Blog • February 17, 2015|
When is 390 yds better than 460 yds?
Each and every Saturday throughout the football season as I’m watching my bank of TV’s I probably hear announcers talking about a teams offensive ranking 500 times a day. It’s simple as all you do is take their yards per game average and rank the teams. So in reality if your favorite team played at home versus the worst FCS team it counts the same as if your played last years #1 defense, Clemson, at Death Valley! It doesn’t seem right.
As you know by reading the blog or as an “Inside the Pressbox” customer my unit rankings are based on the competition each team has played. While that is the most accurate method another great and simple barometer is to check out the TEAM PAGES at Philsteele.com. By looking at the game by game stats under “Off vs Foe Def” this takes into account how your teams offense did versus the average performance of the defense. Look at Navy’s 2014 game by game stats.
Vs Ohio St the Navy offense had: 390 yds, that was 51 yards OVER what OSU normally allowed LY
Vs WKU the Navy offense had: 467 yds, that was 47 yards UNDER what WKU allowed per game LY
So despite gaining more yards: +77 (467-390) in the WKU game the Ohio St performance was much more impressive as they were +51 yds vs OSU and -47 yds vs WKU.
AUBURN +15 SPOTS
The chart below gives you a teams offensive strength based on their performance versus their opponents average. On the chart you’ll see a few quick surprises. Auburn is #2 in my rankings but the NCAA has them at #17. The Tigers played a pair of my top 3 defenses in Ole Miss and Alabama and SIX more teams that were ranked in my top 26 at game time. Plus, the 4 non-top 26 teams were Texas A&M (#44), La Tech (#51), San Jose St (#62) and South Carolina (#69). WOW!
WASHINGTON -34 SPOTS
Again by looking at the chart below you can see that the Washington Huskies are ranked #111 gaining 58 ypg less then what their opponents allowed on average. The NCAA ranking for UW’s offense is #74. Let’s look at the Washington TEAM PAGE at PhilSteele.com and I’ll point out the 3 major discrepancies. The Huskies totaled 1343 yds vs Illinois, Colorado and Washington St, which averages to an impressive 448 ypg. BUT, when UW faced those 3 teams their defenses were ranked #107, #71 and #84 and the 448 ypg gained was actually 19 YPG UNDER what they normally allow.
Check out if your favorite teams were well above their opponents average (12 teams were 100 ypg or more over) or below their average (10 teams were 100 ypg or more under).
|48||UAB Ala Birm||16.9|
|52||MIDDLE TENN ST||12.8|
|61||NEW MEXICO ST||4.3|
|87||SAN JOSE ST||-22.3|
|102||SAN DIEGO ST||-47.2|