Daily Blog • June 30, 2014 Blog Archives

First of all, let’s explain what ypp is exactly. A ypp is simply yards per point. An offense is more efficient when their ypp is a lower number like in golf. If a team had an offensive ypp of 10.0, that would mean for every 200 yards they gained, they scored 20 points. Meanwhile, if they had an offensive ypp of 20.0, then for every 200 yards they gained, they only scored 10 points. On the other side of the ball, defenses want to have a higher ypp. Inverting the same thought, if a team allowed 200 yards and had a 20.0 ypp, that means they would allow just 10 points for every 200 yards the opposition traveled, whereas a 10.0 ypp would be 20 points for every 200 yards allowed. When I started this research in 1990, the average ypp for a team was 15.44 and the median was 15.49. It surprises me how much the median has dropped inside this decade.

# Offensive YPP

Last year the avg was just 14.6 and the median was 13.85. I found teams that have a high offensive ypp (move the ball but do not score) the previous year generally have a stronger record the next season. Let’s look at teams that had an unusually high ypp the previous year (an inefficient offense). If you look at the chart below you will see that 28 teams have had a ypp greater than 22.3 since 1990 and ALL 28 have had a stronger or identical record the next year. Last year no team was higher than 22.3 but THREE teams fit that criteria this season (Massachusetts, Miami, Oh and FIU). New Mexico was the last with a 24.68 Off YPP in 2011 and after a 1-11 season went 4-9 in 2012. As you can see, the chart goes to 17.5, which still has a solid success record, as teams will either have the same or a stronger record 75.6% of the time.

 OFFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YR Happen Stronger Same Weaker BETTER Or YPP GREATER Times Record Record Record Same THAN S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 22.3 28 27 1 0 100.0% 20.3 77 59 6 12 84.4% 18.4 197 138 24 35 82.2% 17.5 320 211 31 78 75.6%

Teams that had an extremely low ypp the previous year usually have a weaker record the next season. The statistics are not as dominant as the high YPP, probably because there are some teams that benefit from turnovers on a yearly basis, keeping their ypp low. Still, according to the chart teams whose ypp were less than 11.57 the previous year had either a weaker or the same record 74.4% of the time the next year. There are a lot of teams that fit into the category of under 13.57. Looking at the history of the offensive ypp, these teams have a 67.2% chance of a weaker or same record this season.

 OFFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YEAR Happen Weaker Same Stronger WEAKER Or YPP LESS Times Record Record Record Same Record THAN S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 11.57 129 82 14 33 74.4% 13.57 863 499 81 283 67.2%

## 2013 Offensive YPP

 Team 2013 Offensive YPP How they will fare in 2014 Florida St 10.05 Ohio St 11.25 Oklahoma St 11.48 Arizona St 11.51 Teams who have a 74.4% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2014. Michigan 11.59 East Carolina 11.66 Baylor 11.81 Marshall 11.87 Alabama 11.90 Kansas St 12.12 UCLA 12.15 Texas A&M 12.17 Vanderbilt 12.19 Georgia Tech 12.25 Old Dominion 12.26 Navy 12.26 Louisiana 12.34 Ball St 12.37 Oregon 12.43 Missouri 12.54 Tulane 12.54 Stanford 12.56 Miami, Fl 12.58 Fresno St 12.63 Clemson 12.64 Houston 12.65 LSU 12.67 Boise St 12.68 Auburn 12.69 UCF 12.76 Oklahoma 12.88 New Mexico 12.88 North Texas 12.89 Nebraska 12.92 Utah St 12.95 Duke 13.00 Colorado St 13.00 North Carolina 13.02 Buffalo 13.02 Louisville 13.11 Northern Illinois 13.11 Michigan St 13.13 Washington 13.17 Georgia 13.19 Bowling Green 13.21 Indiana 13.24 Boston College 13.26 South Carolina 13.27 Minnesota 13.36 Oregon St 13.43 USC 13.46 Toledo 13.56 Teams who have a 67.2% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2014. Troy 13.59 Washington St 13.59 Utah 13.60 Texas St 13.64 Rice 13.68 Arizona 13.70 TCU 13.75 UNLV 13.75 Rutgers 13.76 Pittsburgh 13.77 Wisconsin 13.80 Ohio 13.85 Texas 13.94 Arkansas St 13.99 Middle Tennessee 14.05 San Diego St 14.27 Texas Tech 14.29 Iowa 14.33 Illinois 14.38 FAU 14.40 South Alabama 14.46 Colorado 14.55 Iowa St 14.62 Central Michigan 14.67 Cincinnati 14.72 Tennessee 14.83 WKU 14.87 Air Force 14.90 Notre Dame 14.90 UAB 14.97 Penn St 15.11 Wyoming 15.13 Hawaii 15.17 Maryland 15.18 San Jose St 15.22 Northwestern 15.27 Connecticut 15.48 West Virginia 15.61 Mississippi St 15.69 Ole Miss 15.78 Virginia Tech 15.80 Wake Forest 15.86 Army 15.86 Nevada 15.95 Memphis 15.97 UTEP 16.00 Temple 16.01 ULM 16.19 SMU 16.27 UTSA 16.33 BYU 16.37 Syracuse 16.61 Kentucky 16.64 Florida 16.81 Tulsa 16.89 Akron 16.96 Arkansas 17.28 NC State 17.67 Teams who have a 75.6% chance of having a stronger or same record in 2014. Kent St 17.78 Eastern Michigan 17.85 New Mexico St 18.27 Southern Miss 18.47 Teams who have a 82.2% chance of having a stronger or same record in 2014. USF 18.65 Virginia 18.65 Georgia St 18.95 Purdue 18.97 Western Michigan 19.06 Louisiana Tech 19.10 Kansas 19.21 California 19.72 Idaho 20.28 FIU 22.46 Teams who have a 100% chance of having a stronger or same record in 2014. Miami, Oh 23.16 Massachusetts 24.14

# Defensive YPP

Now let’s take a look at the teams under the defensive ypp that were not so fortunate last year. As the chart below shows, if a team allows a defensive ypp of 12.65 or lower, (meaning they gave up a lot of points but not a lot of yds), their record improves or is the same the next year 73.8% of the time. Southern Miss with their 10.39 Def YPP is the lowest since Eastern Michigan in 2010 (10.34). In 2011 The Eagles went 6-6 improving from a 2-10 record. Overall, teams that have a 13.29 defensive ypp or lower since 1990 have either had a stronger or same record 69.4% of the time.

 DEFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YEAR Happen Stronger Same Weaker BETTER Or YPP IS Times Record Record Record Same Record LESS THAN S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 11.25 66 43 6 17 74.2% 12.65 366 233 37 96 73.8% 13.29 633 376 61 194 69.4%

Teams that allowed a lot of yards but not a lot of points are generally considered bend but don’t break D’s. However as shown below, teams whose defensive ypp was 17.15 or greater the previous year have a weaker or the same record the following year 65.3% of the time. Since 1990 only 35 teams have had a Def YPP over 22.45 including both participants in the 2012 National Championship. Notre Dame (23.92) and Alabama (22.88) combined for a 25-2 record with those incredible YPP’s but LY while still very respectable the combined record fell to 20-6. It should be noted that Alabama has been quite unusual as this is the FOURTH straight year they’ve been among the 4 best Def YPP in the nation.

 DEFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YEAR Happen Weaker Same Stronger WEAKER Or YPP IS Times Record Record Record Same Record GREAT THAN: S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 22.45 35 27 2 6 82.9% 20.35 101 72 8 21 79.2% 19.85 131 90 10 31 76.3% 17.15 502 289 45 168 65.5%

## 2013 Defensive YPP

 Team 2013 Defensive YPP How they will fare in 2014 Florida St 23.18 Team who has a 82.9% chance of having weaker or same record in 2014. Louisville 20.69 Alabama 20.58 Teams who have a 79.2% chance of having weaker or same record in 2014. Bowling Green 20.27 Team who has a 76.3% chance of having weaker or same record in 2014. North Texas 19.60 Utah St 19.38 Houston 19.10 Michigan St 19.06 Wisconsin 18.71 Missouri 18.11 Oregon 18.09 Stanford 18.06 Oklahoma St 17.81 South Carolina 17.23 BYU 17.16 Teams who have a 65.5% chance of having weaker or same record in 2014. Auburn 17.02 Washington 17.01 UCF 16.99 Minnesota 16.79 Ball St 16.76 Ohio St 16.67 UCLA 16.67 Boise St 16.64 Arizona 16.55 Northern Illinois 16.55 North Carolina 16.48 Tulane 16.41 Notre Dame 16.36 Navy 16.19 Clemson 16.10 Marshall 16.07 Iowa 16.02 Miami, Fl 15.93 Temple 15.87 Oklahoma 15.86 USC 15.80 Arkansas St 15.79 Georgia Tech 15.77 Texas 15.76 Buffalo 15.70 Duke 15.69 Kansas St 15.65 Northwestern 15.64 Ole Miss 15.64 Louisiana Tech 15.55 LSU 15.49 Middle Tennessee 15.37 Baylor 15.31 South Alabama 15.27 Kent St 15.23 Wake Forest 15.20 Mississippi St 15.19 Memphis 15.08 Cincinnati 15.03 Nebraska 14.92 Florida 14.91 Rice 14.90 East Carolina 14.89 Louisiana 14.87 Boston College 14.81 Maryland 14.79 Ohio 14.78 Texas A&M 14.76 Toledo 14.76 Virginia Tech 14.69 Nevada 14.68 Penn St 14.57 FAU 14.56 Texas St 14.51 Syracuse 14.46 Tennessee 14.43 Vanderbilt 14.41 UTSA 14.29 Fresno St 14.21 Utah 14.20 Central Michigan 14.17 ULM 14.15 TCU 14.12 Washington St 14.08 Colorado St 13.98 Arizona St 13.98 Oregon St 13.91 Akron 13.89 Rutgers 13.87 Michigan 13.84 WKU 13.80 Kentucky 13.71 Texas Tech 13.71 West Virginia 13.65 UNLV 13.60 Illinois 13.60 Indiana 13.59 Kansas 13.59 Miami, Oh 13.58 Pittsburgh 13.54 Troy 13.45 Arkansas 13.44 Old Dominion 13.30 NC State 13.24 Teams who have a 69.4% chance of having a stronger or same record in 2014. Wyoming 13.15 Massachusetts 13.13 San Jose St 13.09 Army 13.01 Georgia 12.95 Iowa St 12.86 Hawaii 12.77 Georgia St 12.72 Connecticut 12.71 Tulsa 12.67 SMU 12.38 Teams who have a 73.8% chance of having a stronger or same record in 2014. New Mexico St 12.33 USF 12.27 Air Force 12.26 Colorado 12.24 San Diego St 12.18 Virginia 12.14 Purdue 12.10 New Mexico 12.08 UTEP 11.91 Western Michigan 11.84 FIU 11.61 California 11.53 UAB 11.38 Idaho 11.32 Eastern Michigan 11.30 Southern Miss 10.39 Team who has a 74.2% chance of having a stronger or same record in 2014.