|Daily Blog • June 27, 2014|
Stock Market Indicator
Almost every system I come up with first looks at college football and then I check to see if the success translates to the NFL. This system is the exception as it made my NFL magazine first, under the title “Slipping and Sliding”. However, when I tried to plug this system in for college football, it did not have the same results as it did in the NFL, as teams’ records fluctuate more and there is not as much parity. The college system I devised was built taking into account a longer term. What I did was I took a 2-year result record vs the previous year’s win total and that got me to the NFL-type success percentages.
For example, in 2012 Ohio St had a Stock Market Indicator of 5.5 (Bull Market). The 5.5 was calculated by taking their average win total from 2009-2010, which was 11.5 (11-2 in ’09, 12-1 in ’10) and then subtracting their wins from 2011 (just 6) which produced the 5.5. The +5.5 means that after two great seasons in ’09-‘10, the Buckeyes clearly underperformed in 2011 and were poised for a big bounce back last year (Bull Market). My Stock Market Indicator proved to be spot on as the Buckeyes were the Most Improved Team in the country going 12-0 in ’12!
I had only been doing the totals over the last couple of years but two years ago developed a program to help me go back to 1990 and check the results. I was quite surprised. Since 1990 there have been a total of 22 teams that had a +6 Stock Market Indicator meaning that the prior year’s win total was 6 wins less than the average of the 2 years prior. Of those 22 teams, only 1 team had a weaker record, while 20 improved their record and 1 stayed the same. That improvement was dramatic going from a combined 62-194 (24.2%) to a combined 124-139 (47.1%). I had expected to see a drastic drop off in the numbers at the next level but surprisingly did not. Teams in the +5.5 category improved their record at a 12-2-2 clip. There were 33 instances of teams being +5 in the Stock Market Indicator category since 1990 and those teams were 23-9-1 (72.7%). The totals for +4.5 went 31-12-4 (74.5%) and when the total got to +4 Stock Market Indicator, it surprisingly went back up to 42-8-5 (85.5%, 4-0-1 LY), which was superior to the individual +4.5 and +5 range. The numbers did drop to 77.5% for a +3.5 net wins, 73.7% for +3 and down to 65.8% for +2.5. However, just when you thought the trend would get lower, surprisingly +2.0 had a 73.1% success rate. Even teams that had a +1.5 Stock Market Indicator from the prior two years, went up 65% of the time.
Summing it all up, I will put it into 3 categories. Teams with a +6.0 Stock Market Indicator or higher were an almost perfect 20-1-1 (95.5%). Teams in the +4 to +5.5 range were 120-31-12 (81.0%). Teams in the +1.5 to +3.5 two-year Stock Market Indicator range were 314-154-52 (70.4%). Overall, of the teams since 1990 that had a +1.5 Stock Market Indicator or higher: 442 improved their record, 186 had a weaker record and 64 had the same record meaning 73.1% of the time, teams in that category improved or had the same record.
|Stock Market #||Total||% Stronger or Same||Stronger or Same||Stronger||Weaker||Same|
|+7.5 or more||5||100.00%||5||5||0||0|
|+7.5 or more||5||100.00%||5||5||0||0|
|+7 or more||8||100.00%||8||7||0||1|
|+6.5 or more||13||92.30%||12||11||1||1|
|+6 or more||22||95.50%||21||20||1||1|
|+5.5 or more||38||92.10%||35||32||3||3|
|+5 or more||71||83.10%||59||55||12||4|
|+4.5 or more||118||79.70%||94||86||24||8|
|+4 or more||173||81.50%||141||128||32||13|
|+3.5 or more||253||80.20%||203||179||50||24|
|+3 or more||352||78.40%||276||246||76||30|
|+2.5 or more||428||76.20%||326||294||102||32|
|+2 or more||536||75.60%||405||358||131||47|
|+1.5 or more||693||73.20%||507||442||186||65|
This year only ONE teams falls into the top bracket of +6 or more on the two-year Stock Market Indicator and that is Tulsa who has a 91% chance of improving their record this year. Here is a complete list of the teams that show a bull market for the upcoming season.
2014's Bull Market Teams
|Team||Stock Market Number|
|San Jose St||2|
Like all of my systems I put in my magazine, there is a two-way street to this Stock Market Indicator. I also reviewed the numbers since 1990, on the Bear side of the market, teams with a negative indicator, indicating that a team had likely overachieved the prior year, and the numbers were similar to the Bull side. In fact of teams that had a -6.0 Stock Market Indicator or lower, only 2 managed to improve their record. In 2003 Navy which went from 8-5 to 10-2 and 2000 South Carolina which went from 8-4 to 9-3. The biggest drop-offs came in 1998. Tulane had a -7.5 Stock Market Indicator and went from 12-0 to 3-8. Interestingly in 1998 I called for Washington St to go from a Rose Bowl to last place in the Pac-10 - which they did and in the 2 year Stock Market Indicator they were -6.0 and went from 10-2 to 3-8.
A look at the 2-year Stock Market Indicator shows a power trend of basically 77.8% if teams have a -2.0 Stock Market Indicator or less since 1990. Unlike the above positive Market Indicator, there were actually two teams that bucked the trend with a -7.5 or -7 and improved but overall the chart has higher percentages. Teams that had a Stock Market Indicator of -5 or lower had a weaker or the same record the next year 91.5% of the time with 80 having a weaker record, only 8 managing to improve and 6 having the same record. Even teams with a Stock Market Indicator of -3.0 to -4.5 were in a 77.0% category having a weaker record 181 times and improving the record just 61 and the same record 23 times. The teams in the -2.0 to -2.5 Stock Market Indicator had a weaker or same record the next year 73.0% of the time. Unlike the positive Market Indicator, I was not pleased with the results of -1.5, so I cut this chart off at -2.0.
Bottom line is that a 91.5% trend of a weaker or same record if teams have a -5 indicator or less, -3 to -4.5 is 77% and -2 to -2.5 is 73%. Overall, teams that had -2 Stock Market Indicator or lower had the weaker or the same record basically 77.8% of the time.
|Stock Market #||Total||% Weaker or Same||Weaker or Same||Weaker||Stronger||Same|
|-7.5 or lower||8||87.50%||7||7||1||0|
|-7.5 or less||8||87.50%||7||7||1||0|
|-7 or less||14||85.70%||12||12||2||0|
|-6.5 or less||22||90.90%||20||20||2||0|
|-6 or less||33||93.90%||31||29||2||2|
|-5.5 or less||57||93.00%||53||48||4||5|
|-5 or less||94||91.50%||86||80||8||6|
|-4.5 or less||135||89.60%||121||108||14||13|
|-4 or less||191||84.80%||162||146||29||16|
|-3.5 or less||260||81.50%||212||194||48||18|
|-3 or less||359||80.80%||290||261||69||29|
|-2.5 or less||462||79.20%||366||325||96||41|
|-2 or less||585||77.80%||455||406||130||49|
Here is the complete list of teams that show a bear market for 2014 including last year’s SEC Champs Auburn who come in with a -6.5 Stock Market report.
2014's Bear Market Teams
|Team||Stock Market Number|