Daily Blog •August 2, 2013 Blog Archives

Ten years ago I did an article on ypp and every year there are some solid charts for you to review. First of all, let’s explain what ypp is exactly. A ypp is simply yards per point. An offense is more efficient when their ypp is a lower number like in golf. If a team had an offensive ypp of 10.0, that would mean for every 200 yards they gained, they scored 20 points. Meanwhile, if they had an offensive ypp of 20.0, then for every 200 yards they gained, they only scored 10 points. On the other side of the ball, defenses want to have a higher ypp. Inverting the same thought, if a team allowed 200 yards and had a 20.0 ypp, that means they would allow just 10 points for every 200 yards the opposition traveled, whereas a 10.0 ypp would be 20 points for every 200 yards allowed. When I started this research in 1990, the average ypp for a team was 15.44 and the median was 15.49. It surprises me how much the median has dropped inside this decade. Last year the avg was just 14.42 and the median was 13.77.

 OFFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YR Happen Stronger Same Weaker BETTER Or YPP GREATER Times Record Record Record Same THAN S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 22.3 28 27 1 0 100.0% 20.3 76 58 5 13 82.9% 18.4 195 136 22 37 81.0% 17.5 294 194 28 72 75.5%

I found teams that have a high offensive ypp (move the ball but do not score) the previous year generally have a stronger record the next season. Let’s look at teams that had an unusually high ypp the previous year (an inefficient offense). If you look at the chart above you will see that 28 teams have had a ypp greater than 22.3 since 1990 and ALL 28 have had a stronger or identical record the next year. Last year New Mexico topped the chart at 24.68 and went from 1-11 to 4-9. In fact, the Lobos won more games last year (4) than they did the previous 3 years combined (3)! As you can see, the chart goes to 17.5, which still has a solid success record, as teams will either have the same or a stronger record 75.5% of the time. Last year 7 teams received mention in this box and 5 of the 7 went on to have a stronger or same record in 2012.

 OFFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YEAR Happen Weaker Same Stronger WEAKER Or YPP LESS Times Record Record Record Same Record THAN S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 11.57 127 78 15 34 73.2% 13.57 813 474 72 267 67.2%

Teams that had an extremely low ypp the previous year usually have a weaker record the next season. The statistics are not as dominant as the high ypp, probably because there are some teams that benefit from turnovers on a yearly basis, keeping their ypp low. Still, according to the chart above, teams whose ypp were less than 11.57 the previous year had either a weaker or the same record 73.2% of the time the next year. There are a lot of teams that fit into the category of 11.57-13.57, so make sure you check out the complete list below. Looking at the history of offensive ypp, these teams have a 67.2% chance of a weaker or same record this season.

# 2012 Offensive YPP

 Team 2012 Off YPP How They Will Fare in 2013 Kansas St 10.33 Teams who have a 73.2% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2013. Oregon 10.85 Louisiana Tech 11.22 Ohio St 11.40 UCF 11.50 Alabama 11.51 Kent St 11.74 Teams who have a 67.2% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2013. South Carolina 11.94 North Carolina 11.97 Oklahoma St 11.97 Florida St 12.00 SMU 12.03 San Diego St 12.07 Arizona St 12.10 Utah 12.17 Northern Illinois 12.17 Texas 12.18 Georgia 12.38 Northwestern 12.45 Clemson 12.50 UTSA 12.52 Texas A&M 12.56 LSU 12.57 Fresno St 12.59 Florida 12.64 Vanderbilt 12.66 West Virginia 12.72 ULM 12.79 San Jose St 12.83 Michigan 12.84 Louisiana 12.84 Baylor 12.87 Boise St 12.94 Mississippi St 12.96 Duke 12.97 East Carolina 12.99 Temple 13.02 Memphis 13.04 Oklahoma 13.05 Marshall 13.06 Georgia Tech 13.14 Tennessee 13.16 Tulsa 13.17 Texas Tech 13.24 Nebraska 13.25 Oregon St 13.26 Texas St 13.29 Wisconsin 13.30 Arkansas St 13.36 Rice 13.42 Utah St 13.43 Stanford 13.44 Louisville 13.44 Ole Miss 13.47 USC 13.50 UCLA 13.55 Ball St 13.60 Nevada 13.60 Cincinnati 13.63 Central Michigan 13.69 TCU 13.73 WKU 13.74 Arizona 13.79 Missouri 13.84 BYU 13.95 Miami, Fl 14.01 Ohio 14.03 Purdue 14.03 Hawaii 14.05 Toledo 14.12 Maryland 14.18 Penn St 14.36 New Mexico 14.36 Indiana 14.37 Wyoming 14.56 Minnesota 14.56 Pittsburgh 14.66 Middle Tennessee 14.77 Houston 14.79 Washington 14.80 UAB 14.83 Iowa St 14.84 Tulane 14.92 Western Michigan 14.97 NC State 15.00 Virginia Tech 15.02 Air Force 15.29 Navy 15.33 FIU 15.35 Rutgers 15.37 Eastern Michigan 15.74 Syracuse 15.87 Bowling Green 15.94 Notre Dame 15.99 Colorado St 16.02 Iowa 16.06 Wake Forest 16.29 Troy 16.31 Auburn 16.34 Akron 16.38 Southern Miss 16.42 Miami, Oh 16.51 UNLV 16.72 Colorado 16.98 California 17.01 Florida Atlantic 17.11 Virginia 17.43 Kentucky 17.58 Teams who have a 75.5% chance of having a better or same record in 2013. UTEP 17.60 Washington St 17.61 Boston College 17.64 Buffalo 17.69 Illinois 17.80 USF 17.85 Arkansas 17.88 Connecticut 17.93 New Mexico St 17.96 Michigan St 17.97 Army 17.99 South Alabama 18.06 North Texas 18.75 Teams who have a 81.0% chance of having a better or same record in 2013. Kansas 19.74 Idaho 19.90 Massachusetts 21.97 Has a 82.9% chance of having a better or same record in 2013.

Now let’s take a look at the teams under the defensive ypp that were not so fortunate last year. As the chart below shows, if a team allows a defensive ypp of 12.53 or lower, (meaning they gave up a lot of points but not a lot of yds), their record improves or is the same the next year 72.6% of the time.  Last year there were 12 teams that fit this category and 9 of those teams (75%) had a better or same record in 2012. Overall, teams that have a 13.29 defensive ypp or lower since 1990 have either had a stronger or same record 69.3% of the time.

 DEFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YEAR Happen Stronger Same Weaker BETTER Or YPP IS Times Record Record Record Same Record LESS THAN S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 11.25 64 41 5 18 71.9% 12.53 336 217 27 92 72.6% 13.29 583 352 52 179 69.3%

Teams that allowed a lot of yards but not a lot of points are generally considered bend but don't break D’s. However as shown below, teams whose defensive ypp was 17.35 or greater the previous year have a weaker or the same record the following year 65.3% of the time. Last year 5 teams were coming off seasons with a 18.53 def ypp or higher and 4 of those teams would go on to have weaker records.  The exception to this rule as of late has been Alabama who has been featured in the article the last several years and has improved its record each of the last 2 years despite having a 21.0 defensive ypp or greater each year!

 DEFENSIVE YPP • PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE 1990 PREV YEAR Happen Weaker Same Stronger WEAKER Or YPP IS Times Record Record Record Same Record GREAT THAN: S/1990 Next Yr Next Yr Next Yr S/1990 22.45 33 25 2 6 81.8% 20.35 97 67 9 21 78.4% 19.85 125 84 10 31 75.2% 17.35 427 242 37 148 65.3%

# 2012 Defensive YPP

 Team 2012 Off YPP How They Will Fare in 2013 Notre Dame 23.92 Teams who have a 81.8% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2013. Alabama 22.88 Rutgers 22.02 Teams who have a 78.4% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2013. Cincinnati 21.02 Utah St. 20.94 Boise St. 20.01 Teams who have a 75.2% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2013. Florida 19.88 Stanford 19.53 Teams who have a 65.3% chance of having a weaker or same record in 2013. BYU 19.01 Northern Ill. 18.60 Penn St. 18.52 Iowa St. 18.48 Georgia 18.21 Texas A&M 17.93 Vanderbilt 17.86 Bowling Green 17.69 LSU 17.54 Oregon 17.31 South Carolina 17.31 Florida St. 17.27 Oregon St. 17.17 Kansas St. 17.00 UCF 16.93 Wisconsin 16.85 Michigan St. 16.83 Northwestern 16.78 Kent St. 16.75 Toledo 16.67 Iowa 16.65 Mississippi St. 16.62 USC 16.21 San Jose St. 16.18 Michigan 16.12 Miami (FL) 15.95 Clemson 15.95 Navy 15.91 North Carolina St. 15.80 Ohio St. 15.75 Middle Tenn. 15.74 Arkansas St. 15.69 Pittsburgh 15.68 Ohio 15.68 Oklahoma 15.64 Connecticut 15.63 SMU 15.42 Boston College 15.38 Syracuse 15.30 La.-Lafayette 15.25 North Carolina 15.18 San Diego St. 15.13 UCLA 15.09 Oklahoma St. 14.94 North Texas 14.90 Auburn 14.84 Washington 14.80 UTEP 14.80 Tulsa 14.71 New Mexico 14.69 South Fla. 14.66 Virginia Tech 14.58 Troy 14.54 Minnesota 14.52 Utah 14.49 Texas St. 14.47 Ball St. 14.45 Arizona St. 14.43 La.-Monroe 14.36 TCU 14.32 Louisville 14.32 Fresno St. 14.21 Rice 14.20 Arizona 14.13 Air Force 14.12 Wyoming 14.07 Temple 14.02 Texas 13.83 Missouri 13.75 Western Ky. 13.67 Louisiana Tech 13.66 UNLV 13.65 East Carolina 13.62 Ole Miss 13.61 Wake Forest 13.60 Baylor 13.49 Arkansas 13.48 Houston 13.42 Colorado St. 13.41 Central Mich. 13.40 Miami (OH) 13.39 Kansas 13.35 Western Mich. 13.35 California 13.34 Purdue 13.33 Georgia Tech 13.22 Teams who have a 69.3% chance of having a better or same record in 2013. Tennessee 13.21 UTSA 13.21 Fla. Atlantic 13.17 Indiana 13.15 Nevada 13.10 Nebraska 13.08 Duke 13.03 South Ala. 13.00 Eastern Mich. 12.76 Buffalo 12.76 FIU 12.72 Memphis 12.68 Washington St. 12.65 Akron 12.62 Kentucky 12.61 Tulane 12.56 West Virginia 12.41 Teams who have a 72.6% chance of having a better or same record in 2013. Maryland 12.40 Virginia 12.22 Army 12.09 Illinois 12.08 New Mexico St. 12.08 Texas Tech 11.56 Massachusetts 11.49 UAB 11.39 Southern Miss. 11.27 Idaho 11.18 Teams who have a 71.9% chance of having a better or same record in 2013. Colorado 10.62 Marshall 10.60 Hawaii 10.46