|Daily Blog •July 27, 2012|
If you are a follower of my magazine, I am sure you are familiar with the fact that I have NINE different sets of power ratings that I create each preseason to give me 9 different ways of analyzing a team. One is based on the individual talent level and performance of each position on each team and those are added up for the rating. Another is based on my Power Plays numbers, which include rushing and passing offenses, defenses and special teams. Another is a continually updated power rating based on the score of the games and the strength of opponent. Finally a few years back, before computers became part of the BCS rankings system, there was without a doubt some flaws in the polls. Teams rated #2 or #3 in the country really were not that talented and were maybe the 5th or 6th best. One internet site decided to produce a poll of some of the top analysts and experts each week and invited me to join. I myself work 365 days a year. During magazine time (March, April, May) and throughout the football season (August through January) there are many 15-18 hour days put in and all of them are spent solely working on FOOTBALL. When they invited me to join the poll, I wanted to give them the best set of power ratings in the country to help make the poll as accurate as possible. The dilemma I had was which set?
What I decided to do was combine all eight into one rating which gives me a very solid overall ranking for each team. The rating takes into account EVERY factor, using it as my main set of power ratings which thus created my 9th set. You can learn more about this main set of power ratings on page 331 of this year’s magazine. I also go into complete details on my plus/minus power ratings on page 337.
Speaking of power ratings, Jeff Sagarin has been providing ratings for USA TODAY since 1985 and his college football ratings have been a part of the BCS formula since its inception in 1998.
For the past several years I have projected the preseason AP Top 10 nearly six months in advance and I have correctly projected at least nine of the Top 10 teams each year. It is one of my more popular blogs in the off-season and this year with its overwhelming popularity I decided to expand it for the first time to 24 teams!
Since I have found the Sagarin ratings fascinating over the past 25 years and have compared them to my nine different sets of computer ratings, I thought I would expand my preseason projections this year to include the popular Sagarin ratings. His power ratings for the upcoming season should be released in coming days/weeks so it took me awhile to figure out a formula that Sagarin uses to come up with his ratings but I think I have it down after several trial and errors and feel confident that I am within a ½ point of most of the teams.
Projected 2012 Jeff Sagarin Ratings
|5||Boise St||89.44||65||Wake Forest||70.16|
|14||Virginia Tech||83.30||74||East Carolina||68.23|
|16||South Carolina||82.93||76||San Diego St||67.66|
|22||Penn St||81.03||82||Fresno St||65.71|
|28||Notre Dame||78.82||88||Utah St||64.12|
|35||Mississippi St||77.25||95||Central Michigan||61.94|
|43||Georgia Tech||75.18||103||San Jose St||59.25|
|51||NC State||74.01||111||Middle Tennessee||56.63|
|52||Air Force||73.49||112||North Texas||54.77|
|54||Connecticut||73.07||114||New Mexico St||54.27|
I am sure you are wondering why I am so fascinated and dependent on power ratings when analyzing a team in the preseason and during the season. I am in my early 50’s and I started following college football with great intensity at about 10 years old. At that time (being a numbers guy) I devised my own set of power ratings, which was based mostly on where the preseason magazines I was reading ranked the teams. I even awarded points at that time for how many pictured players each team had in the magazines. I updated those ratings during the season based on the final scores of the games.
A few years later after compiling my ratings (and no longer counting pictures), I stumbled upon the GamePlan magazine. In the front of the magazine was a set of power ratings for each team!! I now had two sets of power ratings on each team and I updated them both during the year giving me two different ways of looking at the strength of a team and I was well on my way to nine different sets.