|Daily Blog • October 14, 2010|
Last year I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and this year I have continued my weekly surprise fantasy picks. Last week I finished with a 7-4-1 record including big wins on QB Aaron Murray, Georgia and Zach Collaros, Cincinnati who combined for 482 yds (74%) with a 5-0 ratio and Murray also had 2 rush TD's. I also predicted that Wisconsin RB's Clay and White would each top 100 yds and they did with White having 117 yds (6.5) and 2 TD's as the back-up. Overall on the season I am 45-17-12 (67%). To check out last week's picks click here. Here are my picks for this week.
My QB’s of the week are: Bryant Moniz, Hawaii, Ryan Aplin, Arkansas St and Russell Wilson, NC State
Bryant Moniz, Hawaii-Moniz leads the nation in passing avg 374 ypg (65%) with a 18-4 ratio. Last week he threw for 376 yds and 3 TD’s in the 49-27 win over Fresno St. This week he takes on a Nevada pass defense that has been the Wolfpack’s Achilles Heel the past several seasons. My computer calls for 440 yds passing and anytime you get those kind of numbers against an undefeated Top 20 team, you’d have to consider it a bit of a surprise.
Ryan Aplin, Arkansas St-Aplin is avg 262 ypg (57%) with a 10-4 ratio and this week gets an Indiana defense that ranks #113 in my pass D rankings and is giving up 222 ypg (61%) and a 11-4 ratio. This numbers are even worse when you consider the Indiana defense has faced Akron’s #119 off, WKU’s #110 off and the FCS offense of Towson. Anytime you take a Sun Belt team player going up against a Big Ten defense, you have to consider it a surprise and my computer agrees as it predicts 240 yds passing for Arkansas St and 23 pts.
Russell Wilson, NC State-Wilson has had a great season so far avg 300 ypg (60%) with a 17-6 ratio and has added 163 rush (2.8) and another TD. He is a big reason why the Wolfpack have jumped out to a surprising 5-1 start and this week he goes up against an East Carolina pass defense that ranks #111 in PDR and is allowing 266 ypg (61%) with a 13-2 ratio. My computer projects 318 pass yds for the Wolpack and I think they easily score 40+ pts in this one.
My RB’s of the week are: Johnny White, North Carolina, Ed Wesley, TCU and Nic Grigsby, Arizona
Johnny White, North Carolina-Coming into the season all the talk at North Carolina was on the 1-2 punch of Shaun Draughn and Ryan Houston but White has emerged with the suspensions and leads with 407 (5.6) and 4 TD’s. This week he takes on a Virginia defense that allowed 256 rush yds (6.1) to Florida St and last week gave up an ACC-record 477 rush yds (6.4) to Georgia Tech. I’ll call for White to have a 100+ yd game and the Tar Heels break their 4 game losing streak to the Cavs.
Ed Wesley, TCU-Wesley leads the Horned Frogs with 611 yds (7.0) and 7 TD’s and this week takes on a BYU defense that has allowed 225 rush yds (5.1) this year and fired their DC after the Utah St game. Last week the Cougars defense allowed just 53 rush yds to San Diego St but the Aztecs only had 12 rush attempts as they fell behind early. This week my computer calls for 280 rush yds for the Horned Frogs with Wesley leading the way.
Nic Grigsby, Arizona-Grigsby gets mention this week because he has been a disappointment so far this season with just 273 yds (5.5) but does have 5 TD’s. This week he gets a Washington St defense that is allowing 258 rush per game (6.5) and has given up 276+ in every conference game this season. I’ll call for Grigsby to have his most rush yds in a game this season to date as the Wildcats should easily roll here.
My WR’s of the week are: Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M, Lyle Leong, Texas Tech and Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares, Hawaii
Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M-Fuller leads the Aggies with 34 rec (14.9) with 6 TD’s. While Missouri has faced the #8 pass eff D (189, 60%, 2-9) they have faced a very soft slate of opposing QB’s with just one of them ranking in the Top 50 in the NCAA. My computer calls for 318 yds passing for the Aggies and if that happens I expect Fuller to have 100+ yds and at least a TD.
Lyle Leong, Texas Tech-Leong leads the Red Raiders with 34 rec (13.6) and 9 TD’s. This week he faces an Oklahoma St that is last in the Big 12 in pass D (291 pass ypg) and has faced a pretty soft slate of opponents to date. My computer projects 415 yds passing for Texas Tech and Leong should have another big day.
Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares-Hawaii-The last time I took these two as a duo they combined for 28 rec and 414 yds (14.8) and 4 TD’s. While they may not reach those numbers this week, I do think they have a shot at combining for 15+ receptions and 300 yds as the Warriors should be very competitive against #19 Nevada.
My Top Defenses of the Week: Florida St, TCU, and Southern Miss
Florida St vs Boston College-Last year the Seminoles gave up 30 ppg and 435 ypg in HC Bowden’s and DC Andrew’s final season. This year in FSU’s 2 home games vs FBS foes they’ve allowed an average of just 5 ppg and 188 ypg! This week they take on a Boston College team that has lost three straight games while avg just 10 ppg and have significant QB issues with Rettig not 100% and last year’s starter Shinksie struggling. My computer projects just 9 points and 253 yds as the Seminoles defense has regained its form after being “sub-par” the past several seasons.
TCU vs BYU-The Horned Frogs have dominated BYU recently outscoring the Cougars 70-14 the last two years and are coming off their first back-to-back shutouts in the last 55 years with wins over Colorado St and Wyoming. The Horned Frogs have won 11 str MWC home game’s by an avg of 36 ppg and this one will be no different as my computer calls for the Horned Frogs to allow just 6 points and 215 yds.
Southern Miss vs Memphis-This one is on here as a surprise as the Golden Eagles allowed 44 points last week to East Carolina. This week they take on a Memphis offense avg just 13 ppg and 276 ypg. The Golden Eagles are at home and should come out fired up and my computer calls for them to hold Memphis to just 12 pts and 246 yds.
Upset of the Week:
California over USC
Last week Cal held a UCLA run game that was avg 321 ypg rush (5.9) to just 26 yds (1.0) while USC fell victim to a game-winning FG on the last play for a 2nd consecutive week in the loss to Stanford even though they had the yardage (499-484) and TO (3-1) edge. While the Trojans have dominated the Golden Bears the L/2 years by a combined 47-6 score USC HC Kiffin may have a difficult time keeping his units focused as his "Us Against the World" mantra is harder to preach after an upset loss to UW and an emotionally draining loss to Stanford. Cal makes it 3 straight losses for the Trojans.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFantasyFootballInsider.com for providing us with their Week 7 Rankings
As usual there is no shortage of sleeper running backs for those in need of help. The last two weeks Bilal Powell and Vick Ballard held down spots in our top 10. This week we have Johnny White taking over the spot as the top sleeper back. Can White help owners as much as Powell and Ballard have the last two weeks?
The most intriguing decision facing fantasy owners is whether or not to start Denard Robison and Taylor Martinez. Both will be up against the stiffest run defenses they’ve faced to date. Rushing yards could be harder to come by than they are used to, but both still have big play potential. And it’s that potential that keeps them in the top 20 quarterbacks for Week Seven.
Visit CollegeFantasyFootballInsider.com for more player rankings and projections.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 7
CollegeFootballGeek.com’s Sneaky Plays - Week 7
By Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com
The 7th week of the college football season is already here and there may be some owners looking for some under the radar fantasy options. Check out who we think could fill in nicely for fantasy teams in Week 7.
David Piland QB Houston vs. Rice:
Piland looks to be the new starting quarterback for the Cougars and looked good last week against a tough Mississippi State defense throwing for 301 yards and 2 scores. While he won’t put up Case Keenum video game numbers, he could easily hit the 300-yard mark again this week against pathetic Rice pass defense that ranks 117th in the country.
Austin Davis QB Southern Miss vs. Memphis:
Davis has been good this year and could be very good this week against a bad Memphis defense. He is a duel threat QB and could find some success both through the air and on the ground this week.
Ryan Katz QB Oregon State vs. Washington:
Katz is coming off a career best of 393 yards passing and 2 scores against a tough Arizona defense. He did lose start receiver James Rodgers to a knee injury, but Markus Wheaton could be a nice fill in. This game with the Huskies could be an old-fashioned Pac 10 shoot out and Katz should play a big part in it. Another 300-yard day could be in the cards this week.
Tyrod Taylor QB Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest:
Taylor broke out last week with 288 total yards and 3 scores, including 127 yards and 2 scores on the ground. He could find similar success this week against a Wake Forest team that does not play much in the way of defense. The Hokies offense is starting to click and their triggerman is a big reason.
Johnny White RB North Carolina vs. Virginia:
White has been on a tear and is fresh off a 179 total yards and 2 score effort against Clemson. He appears to be the straw that stirs the Heels drink and could have another big day against the Cavaliers and their 109th ranked rush defense. White could very easily put up RB #1 numbers this week, so start him with confidence.
Washaun Ealey RB Georgia vs. Vanderbilt:
With the recent suspension of back field mate Caleb King, Ealey should step back into the starting lineup this week. A match up with a weak Commodores defense could be just what Ealey needs reclaim the job permanently. A 100-yard day with a score or two is a distinct possibility for this Dog in Week 7
Damien Berry RB Miami vs. Duke:
Berry has been very consistent this year and is coming off a 100 yard and 1 score game against Florida State. He receives a steady stream of carries on a weekly basis and that’s always a good thing when talking about fantasy running backs. He should be licking his chops this week as he will face a floundering Blue Devil rush defense that ranks 107th in the nation.
Nic Grigsby RB Arizona vs. Washington State:
Grigsby and the Wildcats offense have struggled to run the ball recently, but that could turn around with Washington State on the slate this week. The Cougars rank dead last in the country against the run and should prove no resistance for Grigsby and the Cats this week. A big night could be in store for Grigsby and he could really help some fantasy teams in need this week
Josh Bellamy WR Louisville vs. Cincinnati:
Bellamy was huge last week recording 112 yards receiving a 2 scores against Memphis. He looks to be the #1 target for the Cardinals and is getting better each week. He could find success again this week against a bad Bearcat pass defense that ranks a pitiful 111th in the country. Another 100-yard day could be in the Cards (pun intended) for Bellamy this week.
Theo Riddick WR Notre Dame vs. Western Michigan:
Riddick has become more involved in the Golden Domers passing game and is averaging an impressive 8.25 receptions over his past four games. He could be targeted often again this week in what could be a wide-open game with the Broncos. Expect another 6 to 8 grabs and maybe 80 to 100 yards this week.
Alex Torres WR Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State:
Much was expected of Torres from fantasy owners coming into this season, but he has been a disappointment while battling an injury. He returned to form last week against Baylor when he hauled in two touchdown receptions and 82 yards. He could really explode this week in a fantasy feast of a game against the Pokes and their awful pass defense that comes in at 118th in the nation.
Josh Gordon WR Baylor vs. Colorado:
“Flash” Gordon has emerged as a favorite target of RGIII and has scored in four straight games. He is the deep threat for the Bears and usually hits on at least 1 bomb per week. He could find some room to operate this week against the 87th ranked pass defense of the Buffs.
Sneaky Play Defenses
Florida State vs. Boston College
Southern Miss vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest
Utah vs. Wyoming
LSU vs. McNeese State
Arizona vs. Washington State
There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football.
For more college fantasy football information, visit CollegeFootballGeek.com:
- Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
- Injury Reports
- Player Stock Reports
- Player Rankings
- Sneaky Plays of the Week
- Waiver Wire Reports
CollegeFootballGeek.com is your home for 2010 college fantasy football content! Draft kit, injury reports, player news, player projections, player rankings, mock drafts, community forums, and much more!
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Week 7 Player Rankings
|QUARTERBACKS||RUNNING BACKS||WIDE RECEIVERS|
|1||Bryant Moniz||HAW||1||Daniel Thomas||KANST||1||Justin Blackmon||OKST|
|2||Cam Newton||AUB||2||Jacquizz Rodgers||OREGST||2||Greg Salas||HAW|
|3||Taylor Potts||TTECH||3||DeMarco Murray||OKLA||3||Ryan Broyles||OKLA|
|4||Colin Kaepernick||NEV||4||Shane Vereen||CAL||4||Kealoha Pilares||HAW|
|5||Brandon Weeden||OKST||5||Vai Taua||NEV||5||Randall Cobb||KENT|
|6||Robert Griffin||BAY||6||Marcus Lattimore||SCAR||6||Mohamed Sanu||RUT|
|7||Russell Wilson||NCST||7||Steven Ridley||LSU||7||Aldrick Robinson||SMU|
|8||Ben Chappell||IND||8||Kendall Hunter||OKST||8||Juron Criner||ARIZST|
|9||Ryan Mallett||ARK||9||Johnny White||UNC||9||Kris Adams||UTEP|
|10||Denard Robinson||MICH||10||Adam Robinson||IOWA||10||Lyle Leong||TTECH|
|11||Landry Jones||OKLA||11||Bryce Beall||HOU||11||Jeff Fuller||TX A&M|
|12||GJ Kinne||TULSA||12||Andre Ellington||CLEM||12||DJ Woods||CINCY|
|13||Kyle Padron||SMU||13||Edwin Baker||MCHST||13||Dwayne Harris||ECU|
|14||Taylor Martinez||NEB||14||Ed Wesley||TCU||14||Alshon Jeffrey||SCAR|
|15||Jerrod Johnson||TXA&M||15||Mark Ingram||ALAB||15||Titus Young||BOISE|
|16||Dominique Davis||ECAR||16||Bobby Rainey||WKEN||16||Jerrel Jernigan||TROY|
|17||Austin Davis||SMISS||17||Jermaine Thomas||FSU||17||Austin Pettis||BOISE|
|18||Trevor Vittatoe||UTEP||18||LeVeon Bell||MCHST||18||Tandon Doss||IND|
|19||Ricky Dobbs||NAVY||19||Nic Grigsby (inj)||ARIZ||19||James Cleveland||HOU|
|20||Tyrod Taylor||VTECH||20||Paris Cotton||CMICH||20||Michael Floyd||ND|
|21||Dayne Crist||ND||21||Chad Spann||NILL||21||TJ Moe||MIZZU|
|22||Chandler Harnish||NILL||22||Doug Martin||BOISE||22||Vincent Brown||SDST|
|23||Aaron Murray||GEORG||23||Daniel Herron||OSU||23||AJ Green||UGA|
|24||Kellen Moore||BOISE||24||Lance Dunbar||NTEX||24||Theo Riddick||ND|
|25||Josh Nesbitt||GTECH||25||Matt Brown||TEMP||25||Armon Binns||SMU|
|26||Zach Collaros||CIN||26||Eddie Wide||UTAH||26||Leo. Hankerson||MIAMI|
|27||Dwight Dasher||MTEN||27||Bilal Powell||LOUIS||27||Armand Robinson||MIA-OH|
|28||Corey Robinson||TROY||28||Sam McGuffie||RICE||28||Jermaine Kearse||WASH|
|29||Jacory Harris||MIAFL||29||Jacquise Terry||KENT||29||Demarlo Belcher||IND|
|30||Andy Dalton||TCU||30||Duane Bennett||MINN||30||Kamar Jorden||BGREEN|
|31||Ricky Stanzi||IOWA||31||Noel Devine||WVU||31||Greg Childs||ARK|
|32||Terrell Pryor||OHST||32||Matthew Tucker||TCU||32||Darvin Adams||AUB|
|33||Nick Foles||ARIZ||33||Zach Line||SMU||33||Robert Woods||USC|
|34||Kolton Browing||LAMON||34||Donald Buckram||UTEP||34||Jordan White||WMU|
|35||Stephen Garcia||SCAR||35||Roy Helu||NEB||35||Cody Wilson||CMU|
|36||Larry Smith||VANDY||36||John Clay||WISC||36||Markus Wheaton||OREGST|
|37||Adam Froman||LOUIS||37||Trent Richardson||ALAB||37||Ronald Johnson||USC|
|38||Nick Fanuzzi||RICE||38||Christine Michael||TXA&M||38||DeVier Posey||OHIO ST|
|39||Ryan Radcliff||CMICH||39||Damien Berry||MIAFL||39||Torrey Smith||FAU|
|40||Matt Barkley||USC||40||Anthony Allen||GTECH||40||Marvin McNutt||IOWA|
|41||Ryan Aplin||ARKST||41||Darren Evans||VTECH||41||Josh Gordon||BAY|
|42||Nathan Enderle||IDAHO||42||DaRel Scott||MARY||42||Jarvis Williams||NCST|
|43||Boo Jackson||OHIO||43||Alex Allen||AKRON||43||Jereme Brooks||UTAH|
|44||Pete Thomas||COLOST||44||Allan Bradford||USC||44||Owen Spencer||NCST|
|45||Jake Locker||WASH||45||Vick Ballard||MISST||45||Juan Nunez||WMU|
|46||Ryan Lindley||SDST||46||Armando Allen||ND||46||D. Sanzenbacher||OHIO ST|
|47||Ryan Katz||OREGST||47||Darius Willis||IND||47||Jamel Hamler||FRESNO|
|48||Jordan Wynn||UTAH||48||Ronnie Hillman||SDST||48||Keshawn Martin||MICHST|
|49||Blaine Gabbert||MIZZU||49||Asher Clark||AFA||49||Kendall Wright||BAY|
|50||Bryan Ellis||UAB||50||Chris Thompson||FSU||50||Chris Matthews||KENT|
|1||Michael Egnew||MIZZU||1||Devin Barclay||OHIOST||1||Boise State|
|2||Lance Kendricks||WISC||2||Dan Bailey||OKST||2||TCU|
|3||George Bryan||NCST||3||Josh Jasper||LSU||3||LSU|
|4||L. Green (Inj)||ULL||4||Joe Phillips||UTAH||4||Alabama|
|5||DJ Williams||ARK||5||Kyle Brotzman||BOISE||5||Utah|
|6||Eric Lair||MINN||6||Grant Ressel||MIZZU||6||Miami, FL|
|7||Jack Doyle||WKU||7||Josh Czajkoiwski||NCST||7||Florida State|
|8||Ted Bolser||IND||8||Jake Rogers||CINCY||8||Arizona|
|9||Zack Pianalto||UNC||9||Dan Conroy||MICHST||9||Oklahoma|
|10||Virgil Green||NEVADA||10||Wes Byrum||AUB||10||Florida|
|11||Allen Reisner||IOWA||11||Anthony Martinez||NEV||11||Virginia Tech|
|12||Joe Halahuni||ORG ST||12||Blair Walsh||UGA||12||Iowa|
|13||Kyle Efaw||BOISE||13||Scott Enos||HAW||13||West Virginia|
|14||Collin Franklin||IW ST||14||Kevin Goessling||FRESNO||14||Ohio State|
|15||Ben Guidugli||CIN||15||Ross Evans||TCU||15||Nebraska|
|16||Dwayne Allen||CLEM||16||Eric Folk||WASH||16||Ohio|
|17||Brandon Barden||VAND||17||Dustin Hopkins||FSU||17||South Carolina|
|18||Vance McDonald||RICE||18||Alex Henery||NEB||18||NC State|
|19||David Blackburn||CMU||19||Kevin Fitzpatrick||TULSA||19||Notre Dame|
|20||Ben Thayer||EMU||20||Michael Taylor||TROY||20||Temple|
|21||Charlie Gantt||MICHST||21||Thomas Weber||ARIZST||21||Rutgers|
|22||Danny Noble||TOLEDO||22||Trey Farquar||IDAHO||22||Texas|
|23||Cameron Graham||LVILLE||23||Chris Hazley||VTECH||23||Southern Miss|
|24||Orson Charles||UGA||24||Dakota Warren||UTEP||24||N.Illinois|
|25||P. Lutzenkirchen||AUB||25||Randy Bullock||TX A&M||25||Idaho|
|For complete college fantasy football player rankings and statistical projections, visit the CFG Big Board.|
|Scoring System Used for CFG Rankings:|
|4 points per passing touchdown|
|6 points per rushing/receiving touchdown|
|25 passing yards = 1 point|
|10 rushing/receiving yards = 1 point|
|1 interception = -2 point|
|1 reception = 0.5 points|