|Daily Blog • November 11, 2010|
Last year I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and this year I have continued my weekly surprise fantasy picks. Last week I finished with a 8-4 record including two Big Winners with Tennessee frosh QB Tyler Bray having 325 pass yds with a 5-0 ratio and QB GJ Kinne had 371 pass yds with a 4-0 ratio. Also my defenses went a perfect 3-0 for the 3rd time in 4 weeks giving up a combined 34 ttl pts! Overall on the season I am 72-32-17 (69%). To check out last week's picks click here. Here are my picks for this week.
My QB’s of the week are: TJ Yates, North Carolina, Dan Persa, Northwestern, Nick Foles, Arizona, Mike Hartline, Kentucky, and Tyler Bray, Tennessee
TJ Yates, North Carolina-Yates has to be considered one of the most improved players in the entire country this year and is avg 257 pass ypg (66%) with a 15-4 ratio and last week threw for a school-record 439 yds in the win over Florida St on the road. This week he faces one of the best pass defenses in the country that has held their last three opp’s to under 120 pass yds in each game. However Wake Forest and Georgia Tech naturally are more run-oriented teams therefore making some of the Hokies pass defense numbers inflated. Yates has performed very well against some of the top defenses he has faced incl 400+ pass yds against LSU and FSU and while he won’t pass for that many yards here, he should make enough plays to get the Tar Heels the upset win.
Dan Persa, Northwestern-Persa is avg 251 pass ypg (73%) with a 13-3 ratio and leads the Cats with 469 rush yds (3.2) and 8 TD’s. He is one of only three QB’s in the country (Cam Newton and Denard Robinson) in the top 12 in NCAA ttl offense and pass eff. While Iowa ranks #19 in my pass eff def they have had problems getting to the QB with only 10 sacks on the year and if you take out games against FCS E Illinois and MAC Ball St they are giving up 248 pass ypg. My computer calls for 255 pass yds and last week Persa had more than 100 yds rush against a decent Penn St defense and I’ll call for him to have one of the best performances an opposing QB has had this year against solid Iowa defense.
Nick Foles, Arizona-Foles gets the surprise pick here because he is coming off the injury and struggled last week against Stanford. This week will be a different story as he takes on a USC pass defense that is allowing 277 pass ypg. My computer calls for 318 pass yds for Arizona and I would not be surprised if Foles rebounds in a big way and approaches that 300-yd mark as Wildcats get the win.
Mike Hartline, Kentucky-Hartline like NC QB Yates has to be considered one of the most improved QB’s in the country and is avg 267 pass ypg (66%) with a 21-8 ratio. This week he takes on a Vanderbilt pass defense that is giving up 341 pass ypg the last four weeks. The Wildcats need just one more win to get to bowl eligibility and I’ll call for Hartline to approach the 300 pass yd mark in this one as UK rolls.
Tyler Bray, Tennessee-Bray was a big win for me last week as he passed for 325 yds with a 5-0 ratio in his very first start. This week he gets his first home start against an Ole Miss pass defense that ranks #100 in PDR and his giving up 232 pass ypg (62%) with a 17-4 ratio. My computer calls for 268 pass yds for the Vols and I think Bray has another solid game as the Vols keep their bowl hopes alive.
My RB’s of the week are: Rodney Stewart, Colorado and Orleans Darkwa, Tulane
Rodney Stewart, Colorado-Stewart has become the “workhorse” at RB the last couple of weeks and last week vs Kansas had a career-day with 175 yds (6.5) and 3 TD’s and also added 44 rec yds to put him over 200 all-purpose yds. This week he takes on an Iowa St run defense that is allowing 198 rush ypg (4.6). Colorado needs to win out to get to bowl eligibility and while they fired their HC Hawkins earlier this week, I look for them to get a win here with Stewart leading the way.
Orleans Darkwa, Tulane-Here is a name that many of you may not have heard of but Darkwa has rushed for 100+ yds the last three weeks with 20+ carries in each. This week he gets a Rice defense that is allowing 452 ttl ypg as Darkwa should have no problem topping the 100-yd mark.
My WR’s of the week are: Jordan White, Western Michigan and Denarius Moore, Tennessee
Jordan White, Western Michigan-White leads with 72 rec (14.7) and 8 TD’s and has already topped the 1,000 yd mark. He has gone over the 100-yd mark three straight games with 5 TD’s and this week faces my #118 PDR which is giving up 223 pass ypg with an incredible 24-2 ratio. My computer is calling for 330 pass yds for the Broncos and White should top the 100-yd mark again and get another TD rec or two.
Denarius Moore, Tennessee-I used Moore last week against Memphis and he came thru for me with over 100 rec yds and a touchdown. Since Bray has taken over the starting QB role Moore has been his go-to guy and he had 228 rec yds against Georgia two weeks ago. This week he faces my #100 pass defense in Ole Miss and I could easily see Moore passing the 100-yd mark again for the third straight week.
My Top Defenses of the Week: Marshall, BYU and Ohio St
Marshall vs Memphis-The Herd defense has been respectable in their last two wins holding UTEP and UAB to a combined 29 pts and 317 ttl ypg (only 85 rush ypg 2.7). They are led by two possible All-Americans in LB Mario Harvey who has 102 tkls, 4.5 sks and 6 tfls while DE Vinny Curry has 78 tkls, 9.5 sks and 4 tfls with 14 qbh. This week they take on a Memphis offense that is avg just 14 ppg and 284 ttl ypg. My computer forecasts just 10 pts and 233 yds as the Herd get their 3rd straight win.
BYU vs Colorado St-The Cougars have appeared in this blog in two of the past three weeks and I am going to continue to use them down the stretch here as they could be the most improved defense in the country since the start of the year. HC Mendenhall has done a fantastic job taking over the DC role and the last two weeks have held Wyoming and UNLV to just 173 and 144 total yds. This week they get a Colorado St offense that does have 3 games this year with 490+ ttl off yds but also has 5 games under the 300 yd mark as well. My computer calls for just 16 pts for the Rams and if that is the case the Cougars should get another win.
Ohio St vs Penn St-Ohio St’s defense would not normally show up in this blog but they are a “surprise” pick because they are going up against a Penn St offense that has avg 36 ppg and 438 ypg the last three weeks and QB McGloin has a 7-1 ratio. The Lions may get a “rude” awakening here as Ohio St’s defense has allowed no more than 20 pts in a game vs PSU in the L/8 years. LY OSU held Penn St to 201 yds and the Buckeyes defense is allowing just 14 ppg and 235 ypg this year. My computer calls for just 13 pts and 207 yds for PSU and that would have to be considered a “surprise” from a team that has been so prolific offensively the last three weeks.
Upset of the Week: Last Week Big Winner with Navy!
Colorado over Iowa St
The Buffaloes have been in the news all week after blowing a 45-17 lead in the 4Q to Kansas they decided to fire HC Hawkins. Longtime assistant coach Brian Cabral will serve as the interim coach for the remainder of the season and he actually served as interim coach before in the spring of 2004 when then HC Barnett was suspended. Iowa St is also off a heartbreaking loss as their holder under-threw a wide-open receiver in OT on a 2 pt conv that would have given them an upset over Nebraska. Iowa St is just 1-11 in November away games and the home team has won six straight in this series. The Cyclones are allowing 198 rush ypg (4.7) and that does not bode well going up against RB Stewart who had 175 rush yds last week. I’ll call for Colorado to play with a lot of emotion this week and get an “upset” win at home.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFantasyFootballInsider.com for providing us with their Week 11 Rankings
It’s the last week of the regular season for most. And many will be looking for a win to get into the playoffs. Here are the top rated college fantasy players for Week 11.
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 11
CollegeFootballGeek.com’s Sneaky Plays – Week 11
By Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com
The eleventh week of the college football season is already here and there may be some owners looking for some under the radar fantasy options. In many leagues this week is the first week of the playoffs, so it is even more important to find that “gem” to use in your lineup. Check out who we think could fill in nicely for fantasy teams in Week 11.
Mike Hartline QB Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt:
Hartline has been better than expected this season and has thrown for over 2600 yards and 21 scores. He has a juicy match up this week against the Commodores and their 94th ranked pass defense. A stat line of at least 250 yards and 2 to 3 scores seems about appropriate in this case.
Nick Foles QB Arizona vs. USC:
Foles returned from injury last week against Stanford and looked average against a tough Stanford defense. This week should prove more fruitful as he will face a Trojan pass defense that has really struggled all year long and comes in at 114th nationally. The head wildcat could really have a big game here and propel many fantasy teams to playoff victories. We are expecting big things out of the Cats and Foles this week.
Aaron Murray QB Georgia vs. Auburn:
Murray has been solid for a first time starter and has had a few big games this season. This week he gets to challenge a Tigers secondary that for all their team success has really had difficulty stopping the pass this year, ranking 95th nationally. The Bulldogs may have to throw the ball early and often to keep pace with a potent Tigers offense.
Montee Ball RB Wisconsin vs. Indiana:
Ball has sort of been a forgotten man in Madison with the emergence of James White this season. However with both White and John Clay dealing with injuries, Ball ran for 127 yards and 2 scores against Purdue last week. It looks as though Ball will start for the Badgers and could have a big game versus a shaky Hoosiers rush defense. If he is the main man this week, fantasy owners can expect big things from Ball this Saturday.
Stevan Ridley RB LSU vs. Louisiana Monroe:
Ridley has been a pleasant fantasy surprise this season and could really be a help to fantasy owners this week against La Monroe. The Warhawks rank 88th in the country against the run and figure to see a big dose of Mr. Ridley coming right at them this week. Another 100 yards day with a score or two could be a likely scenario for this Tiger RB in Week 11.
Donald Russell RB Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt:
Russell has been a solid fill in for Derrick Locke and is coming off a 110 yard and 2 score performance against Charleston Southern. It appears that Locke may return this week in some capacity, but Russell could still see enough carries to do a lot of damage against a poor Vandy rush defense that ranks 90th nationally this season. Russell has big upside this week especially if Locke sits out once again.
Alvester Alexander RB Wyoming vs. UNLV:
Alvester has been sort of disappointing this year, but blew up last week to the tune of 151 yards rushing and three scores. Fantasy owners should be licking their chops this week with a trip to face the UNLV. The Rebels are awful against the run and give up 220 yards per game and a staggering 28 touchdowns on the year. This Cowboy could easily repeat his numbers from last week.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Mark Harrison WR Rutgers vs. Syracuse:
This big sophomore has been coming on as of late. He has scored in four straight games and is averaging 75 yards per game receiving over that span. Although the Cuse pass defense has been very good this season, Harrison could still find some open space to make some plays. He seems to be a big part of the Scarlet Knights passing game and could see a bunch pf targets this week.
Roy Roundtree WR Michigan vs. Purdue:
Roundtree exploded last week for 246 yards receiving and 2 scores in a shootout win over Illinois. While we don’t expect anything close to those types of numbers, he is a good bet to be a solid contributor this week against Purdue. It seems like every Michigan game turns into a wild affair, so why stop with the Boilers this week. A trip to the end zone is very possible for Roundtree this week.
Bo Bowling WR Oklahoma State vs. Texas:
Bowling has stepped up and seems to be the #2 WR for the Cowboys. He is averaging 8.5 catches and 95 yards receiving per game over the past two weeks. The Texas pass defense has been stout and ranks 2nd in the nation, but they have not seen a passing attack like the Pokes possess all year long. With the Oklahoma State passing attack clicking the way it has been recently, Bowling is a decent bet to approach his recent numbers.
Marquess Wilson WR Washington State vs. Oregon State:
Wilson has had a remarkable freshman campaign and has been a bright spot for the lowly Cougars. He has 935 yards receiving and should go over the 1000 yard mark after this game. The Beavers pass defense is not good and ranks 102nd nationally. This game could be much closer than most think and Wilson could figure prominently in the outcome.
Luke Stocker TE Tennessee vs. Ole Miss:
Stocker has not been setting the world on fire by any means, but not many TE’s do this year. The Vols passing game seems to be coming alive with Tyler Bray under center and could find more success this week against Ole Miss. The Rebels are 86th in the country defending the pass and could give up some big plays this week. Stocker is worth a shot this week to be sure.
Sneaky Play Defenses
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Boston College vs. Duke
Oregon State vs. Washington State
Air Force vs. New Mexico
Arkansas vs. UTEP
There you have it everyone, enjoy this week’s action and always remember to have fun playing college fantasy football. Good luck in the playoffs!
For more college fantasy football information, visit CollegeFootballGeek.com:
- Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
- Injury Reports
- Player Stock Reports
- Player Rankings
- Sneaky Plays of the Week
- Waiver Wire Reports
CollegeFootballGeek.com is your home for 2010 college fantasy football content! Draft kit, injury reports, player news, player projections, player rankings, mock drafts, community forums, and much more!
A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Week 11 Player Rankings
|QUARTERBACKS||RUNNING BACKS||WIDE RECEIVERS|
|1||Denard Robinson||MICH||1||LaMichael James||OREG||1||Justin Blackmon||OKST|
|2||Dominique Davis||ECU||2||Jacquizz Rodgers||ORGST||2||Ryan Broyles||OU|
|3||Colin Kaepernick||NEV||3||DeMarco Murray||OKLA||3||Dwayne Harris||ECU|
|4||Cameron Newton||AUB||4||Montel Harris||BC||4||Jeff Fuller||TXAM|
|5||Robert Griffin||BAY||5||Mikel LeShoure||ILLIN||5||Jeff Maehl||OREG|
|6||Landry Jones||OU||6||Stepfan Taylor||STAN||6||Alshon Jeffrey||SCAR|
|7||Alex Carder||WMICH||7||Knile Davis||ARK||7||Jordan White||WMICH|
|8||Darron Thomas||OREG||8||Bobby Rainey||WKU||8||Randall Cobb||KENT|
|9||Ribky Dobbs||NAVY||9||Lennon Creer||LTECH||9||AJ Green||UGA|
|10||Kellen Moore||BOISE||10||Rodney Stewart||COLO||10||Lyle Leong||TTECH|
|11||Russell Wilson||NCST||11||Lance Dunbar||NTEX||11||Juron Criner||ARIZ|
|12||GJ Kinne||TULSA||12||Robbie Rouse||FRESNO||12||Patrick Edwards||HOU|
|13||Austin Davis||SMISS||13||Kendall Hunter||OKST||13||Juan Nunez||WMICH|
|14||Ryan Mallett||ARK||14||Vai Taua||NEV||14||Damaris Johnson||TULSA|
|15||Brandon Weeden||OKST||15||Stevan Ridley||LSU||15||TJ Moe||MIZZU|
|16||David Piland||HOU||16||Marcs Lattimore||SCAR||16||Titus Young||BOISE|
|17||Taylor Martinez||NEB||17||Ed Wesley||TCU||17||Kendall Wright||BAY|
|18||Blaine Gabbert||MIZZU||18||Doug Martin||BOISE||18||Austin Pettis||BOISE|
|19||Nathan Scheelhaase||ILLINI||19||Ronnie Weaver||UCF||19||Lance Lewis||ECU|
|20||Dwight Dasher||MTSU||20||Tauren Poole||TENN||20||Josh Gordon||BAY|
|21||Ryan Tannehill||TXAM||21||Mark Ingram||ARK||21||Leonard Hankerson||MIA-FL|
|22||Bryan Ellis||UAB||22||Daniel Thomas||KSU||22||DJ Koulianos||IOWA|
|23||Tyrod Taylor||VTECH||23||Jay Finley||BAY||23||Lester Jean||FAU|
|24||Diondre Borel||UTAHST||24||Shane Vereen||CAL||24||Cody Wilson||CMU|
|25||Andrew Luck||STAN||25||Roy Helu Jr.||NEB||25||Jerrel Jernigan||TROY|
|26||Mike Hartline||KENT||26||Alex. Robinson||ISU||26||Mike Jones||UAB|
|27||Ross Jenkins||LTECH||27||Cyrus Gray||TXAM||27||James Cleveland||HOU|
|28||Aaron Murray||UGA||28||Orleans Darkwa||TULANE||28||Roy Roundtree||MICH|
|29||Ryan Aplin||ARKST||29||Alvester Alexander||WYOM||29||Jarius Wright||ARK|
|30||Corey Robinson||TROY||30||Sam McGuffie||RICE||30||Jamel Hamler||FRESNO|
|31||Andy Dalton||TCU||31||Jordan Todman||UCONN||31||Chris Owusu||STAN|
|32||Steven Threet||ARIZST||32||Leonard Mason||CSU||32||TY Hilton||FIU|
|33||Jordan Wynn||UTAH||33||Lamar Miller||MIAMI||33||Dwayne Frampton||ARKST|
|34||Ryan Cobourn||FRESNO||34||Michael Hayes||HOU||34||Ronald Johnson||USC|
|35||Tim Jefferson||AFA||35||Daniel Herron||OHIOST||35||Armon Binns||CINN|
|36||Ricky Stanzi||IOWA||36||Jonathan Williams||ECU||36||Denarius Moore||TENN|
|37||Trent Steelman||ARMY||37||Adam Robinson||IOWA||37||Jeremy Ebert||NW|
|38||Taylor Potts||TTECH||38||Montee Ball||WISC||38||Chris Rainey||FLOR|
|39||Brian Anderson||MARSH||39||Michael Dyer||AUB||39||Kris Burd||UVA|
|40||Zach Collaros||CINN||40||Alfred Morris||FAU||40||Kris Adams||UTEP|
|41||Tyler Bray||TENN||41||Pat Shed||UAB||41||Cobi Hamilton||ARK|
|42||Terrelle Pryor||OHIOST||42||Bryce Beall||HOU||42||DJ Woods||CINN|
|43||Dan Persa||NW||43||Eddie Wide||UTAH||43||DeVier Posey||OHIOST|
|44||Matt Barkley||USC||44||JJ DiLuigi||BYU||44||Mohamed Sanu||RUT|
|45||Jeffrey Godrey||UCF||45||Keith Payne||UVA||45||Rueben Randle||LSU|
|46||Nick Foles||ARIZ||46||Delone Carter||CUSE||46||Michael Floyd||ND|
|47||A. Carta-Samuels||WYOM||47||James White||WISC||47||Dwight Jones||UNC|
|48||Austen Arnaud||ISU||48||Dion Lewis||PITT||48||Jeremy Kerley||TCU|
|49||Garrett Gilbert||TEXAS||49||Rex Burkhead||NEB||49||Junior Hemingway||MICH|
|50||Ben Chappell||IND||50||Derrvin Speight||UTAHST||50||Frantrell Forrest||UAB|
|1||Michael Egnew||MIZZU||1||Dan Bailey||OKST||1||TCU|
|2||Ladarius Green||ULL||2||Devin Barclay||OHIOST||2||Boise State|
|3||Jordan Reed||FLOR||3||Alex Henery||NEB||3||LSU|
|4||George Bryan||NCST||4||Blair Walsh||UGA||4||Nebraska|
|5||Joe Halahuni||OREGST||5||Wes Byrum||AUB||5||Alabama|
|6||Rob Housler||FAU||6||Derek Dimke||ILLINI||6||Oregon|
|7||Lance Kendricks (inj)||WISC||7||Josh Jasper||LSU||7||Ohio State|
|8||Lee Smith||MARSH||8||Rob Beard||OREG||8||Iowa|
|9||Collin Franklin||IOWAST||9||Nate Freese||BC||9||Air Force|
|10||Orson Charles||UGA||10||Nate Whitaker||STAN||10||Boston College|
|11||Vance McDonald||RICE||11||Danny Hrapmann||SMISS||11||Utah|
|12||David Paulson||OREG||12||Zach Hocker||ARK||12||NC State|
|13||Lucas Reed||NMST||13||Aaron Jones||BAY||13||Illinois|
|14||Daniel Hardy||IDAHO||14||Philip Welch||WISC||14||Wisconsin|
|15||Tyler Eifert||ND||15||Chris Hazley||VTECH||15||Connecticut|
|16||DJ Williams||ARK||16||Joe Phillips||UTAH||16||Oregon State|
|17||Cooper Helfret||DUKE||17||Josh Czajkowski||NCST||17||Kentucky|
|18||Cody Sparks||TULANE||18||Mike Meyer||IOWA||18||Florida|
|19||Eric Lair||MINN||19||Grant Ressel||MIZZ||19||Virginia Tech|
|20||Andre Smith||VTECH||20||Anthony Martinez||NEV||20||Stanford|
|21||Allen Reisner||IOWA||21||Justin Kahut||OREGST||21||Syracse|
|22||Virgil Green||NEV||22||Ross Evans||TCU||22||Rutgers|
|23||Coby Fleener||STAN||23||Kevin Fitzpatrick||TULSA||23||Arkansas|
|24||D. Dunsmore||NW||24||Kevin Goessling||FRESNO||24||Pittsbrgh|
|25||Kyler Reed||NEB||25||John Potter||WMICH||25||Oklahoma|
|For complete college fantasy football player rankings and statistical projections, visit the CFG Big Board.|
|Scoring System Used for CFG Rankings:|
|4 points per passing touchdown|
|6 points per rushing/receiving touchdown|
|25 passing yards = 1 point|
|10 rushing/receiving yards = 1 point|
|1 interception = -2 point|
|1 reception = 0.5 points|