Daily Blog - Tuesday, August 4th
Last year we found a company that does polls and I put up the Fan Poll at the start of the year. During August I had the Conference Forecast tab which listed each team in the conferences and also listed the Fan Vote and who was projected to win those games based on the vote. At the end of August and during the year my computer takes over projecting the results for the rest of the year and the conference races and this is updated EVERY Monday during the year. Today I will analyze the fan vote for the 5 Western Most conferences and tomorrow I will analyze the Fan vote for the 6 Eastern most conferences.
There will be prizes given out to the person who correctly picks the most wins during the course of the season so if you have not done so already get to the poll and vote for EVERY game. I will keep tabs on this on a weekly basis so you can see who is leading the contest weekly. CLICK HERE TO VOTE.
No surprise here USC is forecast to win every game (see chart below) and the closes game is their road trip to Cal where “only” 63% of the fans voted for USC. 71% have them beating Oregon and all other games they are 80% plus with 2 100% votes vs the Washington schools. Oregon finished in the Top Ten at the end of last year and is the current pick for 2nd in the Pac 10 in the fans vote. The fans have it 8-1 in conference play with a slim 52% voting for the Ducks in their home game vs California. That vote is why Cal is in 3rd in the vote as opposed to 2nd with 7-2 being the current Fan vote. Here is something I find VERY surprising. 100% of the voters have them ON THE ROAD vs Arizona St! Oregon St get the pick for 4th at 6-3 this year. UCLA is picked for 5th in the Pac 10 by the voters as 54% have them beating Stanford for a 5-4 record. Arizona is picked for 6th despite getting to a bowl last year. It was almost a 7th place vote as only 52% of the voters have them edging past Ariz St so that could change during the next couple of weeks. Stanford is pegged for 7th at 3-6 but could move up is fans vote them to beat UCLA which is close right now. Arizona St is pegged for 2-7 and have 0% of the vote vs California and Oregon which is shocking! 92% of the voters call for Washington to top Wash St so they look to be a lock for 8th in the fan vote. Wash St is not given much of a chance of a conference win with 8% being their top vote in any one game.
TCU was the media’s pick to win the MWC and they are the voters pick (so far) as well as they are voted to go 8-0 in league play. They do only have a 56%-44% lead over BYU so you Cougar voters could get BYU up to #1 with a little flurry of votes in August. Utah is a solid 3rd with the voters calling for 6-2 and no grey area on any of their games. Air Force is pegged for 4th at 5-3 with 100% of the votes calling for a win over New Mexico and a loss to BYU. Colorado St is a strong call for 5th with each of their 4 wins (4-4) by 60% or more of the vote. UNLV gets the call for 6th at 3-5 but two of their wins they only have 56% of the votes so they could drop in August depending on the vote. San Diego St is expected to escape the basement with a 2-6 record as they get both New Mexico and Wyoming at home. New Mexico gets 61% of the vote to beat Wyoming in Laramie this year and that gets them the #8 spot. Wyoming is projected by the voters to lose every game and surprisingly they got 0% of the vote in the Border War with Colorado St.
As expected Boise is projected to go 8-0 in the WAC by the voters with 76% the slimmest margin (at Fresno). The voters feel Nevada will be 7-0 when they travel to Boise and all 7 wins are at a 69% or higher level. Fresno gets the call for 3rd at 6-2 and 100% call for them to beat their nearby rival San Jose. Louisiana Tech gets the call for 4th at 5-3 with their 56% margin in their road trip to Hawaii the only question mark. Utah St is actually picked 5th in the league by the voters at 3-5! San Jose St is picked 6th at 2-6. As you would expect New Mexico St (1-7) and Idaho (0-8) round out the bottom. The voters think Idaho best chance of a win (58%) is at New Mexico St.
BIG 12 SOUTH
My first question when I picked up the voter data for the Big 12 was, “Who is picked to win Texas/Oklahoma?” The answer surprised me as it was 65% for Texas and just 35% for Oklahoma. Naturally that means Texas was picked to go 8-0 by the voters with 83% calling for the road win at Oklahoma St. Oklahoma is pegged at 7-1 with the next closest game having 78% of the votes for a win over Okla St. The Cowboys are voted to go 6-2 with all their wins by 89% or more of the votes. Texas Tech is pegged for a 4-4 season by the voters with all percentages 63% or higher so that will not change during August. The voters feel Baylor will go 3-5 in the Big 12 but their 51% margin over Missouri in tenuous so that could drop to 2-6 depending on August votes. Texas A&M is pegged to be 2-6 with wins over Kansas St and Iowa St.
BIG 12 NORTH
The thing I like about picking the games individually is that folks have to look at the conference schedule when making their picks for the divisions and not just the QB, RB, WR that are returning and last years record. Kansas has the sexy star power of their skill players and was picked by the majority of the magazines to finish 1st in the Big 12 North. The voters looking at the Big 12 opponents and locations of the games have a different take. The Big 12 North favorite by the voters is Nebraska at 6-2 but they do just have a 57%-43% edge over Kansas so that could change. There is a two way call for a tie for 2nd place with Kansas and Colorado. If the Kansas fans get on board and change the % of the Nebraska game, they would go into a two way tie for first at 5-3 and have the head to head in their favor. Kansas is picked 4-4 with 64% of the voters calling for them to beat Colorado on the road. Despite that projected loss Colorado is also picked 4-4. Showing the disparity of the divisions, Missouri is pegged for 4th at just 2-6 and Kansas St for 5th at 1-7 with their lone win being over Iowa St. The Cyclones are expected to go 0-8 by the voters and the only game they receive over 9% of the vote is that Kansas St game (33%).
The voters feel the East title will be on the line the final week of the season and right now 53% call for East Carolina to beat Southern Miss at home and go 7-1 in CUSA play. That could change during August. Southern is pegged for 6-2 with a close win vs Tulsa and a close loss to EC so that could change as well. UCF is the only other team with a projected winning record in conference play by the voters at 5-3 and the wins are by votes of 88, 81,81,80 and 69% so that appears secure. Marshall is pegged for 4th at 3-5, with Memphis voted to be just 2-6. UAB is expected to beat SMU and go 1-7 but do have 44% of the vote right now at home vs Rice so that could change.
Houston is the media’s pick to win CUSA and they are voted to go 8-0 with the closest game in the polls at 67% for a win on the road at Tulsa. UTEP is pegged to win 6 CUSA games but that could go to 7 as they have 47% of the vote for their home game with Tulsa. Tulsa is also voted to go 6-2 with 47% of the vote in a loss to Southern Miss but two close wins with just 53% for wins over UTEP and East Carolina. It will be interesting to see who the fans vote for in August for 2nd place in the West. Rice is picked for 4th at 3-5 and SMU is pegged to win just 1 game this year (Tulane). Speaking of Tulane, the fans have voted that they will be 0-8 in CUSA ad their best who of a win is 38% of the votes vs Rice.
The polls are still open and you can still get your votes in. I will let you know if we can open it up so you can do a second vote during August. Remember go thru each conference as it is the total wins projected that wins the contest and we will update it weekly. If you forget to vote in a conference you most likely have no shot at winning. Also once you have voted, when you click on the conference the up to the minute results will appear. We will also have all the conference forecasts with percentages updated again on August 15 and then at the end of the month. Tell you friends to enter the contest as it is free. To be eligible for prizes you must enter your correct email address. If we cannot contact you at the email address provided, the prizes go to the next place winner. Tomorrow I will have the votes for the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big East, MAC and Sun Belt.
29 DAYS UNTIL FOOTBALL SEASON!